Commerzbank, \u0130svi\u00e7re Ulusal Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) daha zay\u0131f \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tolerans\u0131n\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonuna ve EUR\/CHF\u2019ye nas\u0131l yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faturalama para birimlerine dayal\u0131 yap\u0131sal bir kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi (pass-through) modeliyle de\u011ferlendiriyor. \u00c7er\u00e7eve, k\u0131sa vadeli ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fin euro cinsinden ticaret taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor: bir ay sonra modellenen euro kanal\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kanal\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,8 kat daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve bu fark sa\u011flaml\u0131k (robustness) kontrolleri alt\u0131nda da anlaml\u0131 kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Model tahminlerine g\u00f6re, frank\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 12 ay sonunda enflasyona 0,18 y\u00fczde puan ekliyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k frank\u0131n 2022\u2019deki g\u00fcc\u00fc ayn\u0131 ufukta enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,22 y\u00fczde puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ima edilen sal\u0131n\u0131m daha b\u00fcy\u00fck: SNB bu y\u0131l da d\u00f6rt y\u0131l \u00f6nceki gibi tepki verseydi, toplam fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 0,4 y\u00fczde puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olurdu. \u0130thal enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131\u201d olarak tarif edilirken, analiz euro b\u00f6lgesi\u2013\u0130svi\u00e7re faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 seyredece\u011fine ve orta vadede EUR\/CHF i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemine i\u015faret ediyor; spot pozisyonda finansman maliyetine katlanmadan maruziyet almak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Halihaz\u0131rda \u0130svi\u00e7re Ulusal Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB), \u00f6zellikle \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun 2026 ortas\u0131nda y\u00f6netilebilir bir seviye olan %1,3 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde, daha zay\u0131f bir \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde tolerans g\u00f6stermeye y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. SNB son haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %1,00\u2019de sabit tutarken Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek seviyede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz makas\u0131 geni\u015fli\u011fini koruyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, a\u011fustosa yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u0131sa CHF pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Ticaret dinamiklerine ili\u015fkin analizimiz, \u0130svi\u00e7re ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde euro cinsinden faturalamaya ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve k\u0131sa vadede euro kanal\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kanal\u0131na k\u0131yasla neredeyse d\u00f6rt kat daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Olumlu taraf\u0131, frank\u0131n son de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist etkisi 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalarak 0,18 y\u00fczde puan gibi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir seviyede g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik, SNB\u2019nin m\u00fcdahale bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve EUR\/CHF paritesinin kademeli \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesine alan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda spot yerine opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, faiz fark\u0131ndan kaynaklanan y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetlerini \u00fcstlenmeden paritedeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi yakalama imk\u00e2n\u0131 veriyor. G10 d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosuna \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc ucuz\u201d bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" SNB\u2019nin zay\u0131f franka tolerans\u0131 CHF\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, enflasyonda 12 ayda +0,18 puanla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkiyi i\u015faret ediyor. Euro ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi dolar\u0131n 3,8 kat\u0131; kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz fark\u0131 EUR\/CHF\u2019yi destekliyor; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t