EUR\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1390 civar\u0131nda seyretti; 1,1300\u2019lerin ortas\u0131ndaki destekten toparlansa da 1,1400 seviyesini yeniden a\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip seviye 1,1324\u2019\u00fcn yak\u0131n olmas\u0131 nedeniyle parite, Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131k kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, piyasalar g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %35 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatlad\u0131; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 bir hamle ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ise ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi Christodoulos Patsalides, y\u00fckselen Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; Eyl\u00fcl politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ise y\u00f6nlendirme yapmad\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD, daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde Temmuz kanal\u0131n\u0131n alt b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; RSI orta \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda, MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n biraz \u00fczerindeydi. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,1440 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1480 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken; destek 1,1324\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan %127,2 Fibonacci uzatma seviyesi olan 1,1245\u2019te ve May\u0131s sonu 2025 dip seviyesi 1,1210\u2019da bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut dar bant hareketini k\u0131rabilmesi nedeniyle bug\u00fcn artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/USD 1,1400\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, piyasa bug\u00fcn s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %35 oran\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bununla birlikte temel senaryo \u201c\u015fahin bir pas\u201d olmaya devam ediyor. Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taahh\u00fct sinyali vermesi halinde ABD dolar\u0131 muhtemelen sert y\u00fckselir ve pariteyi y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dip seviye olan 1,1324\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na itebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi A\u011fustos sonu olan ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1250 civar\u0131nda bulunan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri de \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1210\u2019daki kritik destek seviyesini hedeflemeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde negatif deltaya sahip uzun stratejiler daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle kurulabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentimiz, son pozisyonlanma verileriyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor: CFTC\u2019nin en son \u201ccommitment of traders\u201d raporu, Euro\u2019da spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n bu ay %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca Brent ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle Euro B\u00f6lgesi man\u015fet enflasyonunun %2,6 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131, ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bug\u00fcn Fed\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprizin 1,1245 Fibonacci uzatma seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 tetikleyebilmesi nedeniyle, \u00e7\u0131plak (naked) put satmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Gelir odakl\u0131 stratejileri tercih edenler i\u00e7in, 1,1480 diren\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek ba\u015far\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunuyor. \u00d6zellikle RSI\u2019\u0131n orta \u00e7izginin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla, pariteyi Temmuz zirvesi olan 1,1440\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yacak teknik momentumun olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ECB\u2019nin beklenmedik \u015fekilde kendi faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi durumunda bu prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 1,1500\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 stoplar kullan\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1400 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: %35 s\u00fcrpriz faiz ihtimali dolar lehine risk yarat\u0131yor. 1,1324 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1245-1,1210 hedefte; opsiyonda OTM put\/ay\u0131 spread\u2019leri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t