Alt\u0131n, XAU\/USD\u2019nin Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.000 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle d\u00fczeltme evresinde kald\u0131; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n, k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politika beklentileriyle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131. Zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131, art arda iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan kay\u0131plar\u0131n derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, daha yumu\u015fak gelen ABD Mal Ticareti Dengesi verileri de dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturarak metale k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli destek verdi. Yenilenen Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak Fed\u2019in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, genellikle Hazine tahvili getirilerini desteklerken faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na talebi azaltma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n\n
Oda\u011f\u0131n merkezinde Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirmeleri var. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, bu toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019a i\u015faret ederken, Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %80\u2019e yak\u0131n; \u015fahin bir mesaj ABD Dolar\u0131 ve getirileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, aylard\u0131r i\u015flemlere y\u00f6n veren al\u00e7alan bir kanal i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, \u00fcst trend \u00e7izgisi dinamik diren\u00e7 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; fiyat ise son geri \u00e7ekilmeleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yatay bir destek b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde tutunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcn Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn politika karar\u0131n\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kritik 4.000 dolar alt\u0131n seviyesi etraf\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in %30, Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in %80 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019ten gelebilecek olas\u0131 \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 son derece hassas hale getiriyor. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n, \u00f6nemli yatay deste\u011fin hemen \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k al\u00e7alan kanal i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Fed k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015funu korursa, 3.950 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma h\u0131zla ivmelenebilir ve bu durumda yak\u0131n vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale gelebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, alt\u0131n\u0131n kanal\u0131n \u00fcstteki al\u00e7alan direncinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde call opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son d\u00f6nemde Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan artan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleriyle daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu jeopolitik risk, enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ani bir t\u0131rmanma, Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakacak bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d rallisini tetikleyebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, bu t\u00fcr ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call opsiyonlarla hedge etmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, uzun vadeli zaman de\u011feri kayb\u0131na fazla maruz kalmadan piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri yakalamak i\u00e7in haftal\u0131k opsiyonlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa mevcut teknik kanal\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kana kadar esnek ve n\u00f6tr bir e\u011filimi korumak, bu konsolidasyon evresinde \u201ctestere\u201d hareketlerinde y\u0131pranmay\u0131 azaltacakt\u0131r. Piyasa Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, vadeli i\u015flemlerde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleriyle sermayeyi korumak kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi alt\u0131n 4.000$ \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: zay\u0131f dolar k\u0131sa destek verirken, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 petrol\/enflasyon \u015foku Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. 3.950 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f; \u00fcst kanal a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa y\u00fckseli\u015f. Opsiyonda straddle\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t