Avrupa hisseleri daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ancak geri \u00e7ekildi; Asya\u2019daki oynakl\u0131\u011fa KOSPI\u2019nin %6,0\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck ederken, Avrupa -%1,5 ile +%0,1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretti; ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri ise -%0,1 ile +%0,1 band\u0131nda kald\u0131. Risk alg\u0131s\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcne balistik f\u00fcze ate\u015flemesi (tamam\u0131 engellendi) ve ard\u0131ndan ABD ile Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Irak\u2019ta \u0130ran destekli gruplara y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla da \u015fekillendi; Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00fc\u00e7 tankerin vuruldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken \u0130ran, Umman\u2019\u0131n bir teklifini reddetti. Petrol y\u00fckseldi; Brent %3,3, WTI %3,4 artt\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k %4\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramayla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolara kadar t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Alt\u0131n %0,2 y\u00fckselirken DXY %0,1 geriledi. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi; Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,12, Fransa %3,91, \u0130ngiltere tahvilleri %4,96, ABD tahvilleri %4,61 ve JGB\u2019ler %2,35 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Odak bu geceki FOMC karar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 25 bp art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa, \u201cpas\u201d i\u00e7in ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (25 bp i\u00e7in %57 ve 50 bp i\u00e7in %20); hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n %3,50\u2013%3,75 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. SK Hynix, 2026 i\u00e7in 40 trilyon KRW\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bir capex plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; 3\u00c7\u2019de DRAM bit sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eyreklik bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10, NAND\u2019\u0131 ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tek haneli art\u0131rmay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc ve HBM4\u2019\u00fcn 2\u00c7\u2019de seri \u00fcretime girdi\u011fini, 2027 i\u00e7in HBM4E numunelerinin teslim edildi\u011fini belirtti. Avrupa\u2019da bilan\u00e7olar aras\u0131nda Standard Chartered\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f vergi \u00f6ncesi k\u00e2r\u0131 (PBT) 2,33 milyar dolar (2,00 milyar dolara kar\u015f\u0131), 1 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri al\u0131m ve ara temett\u00fcde %66 art\u0131\u015f; UBS\u2019in temel PBT\u2019si 3,88 milyar dolar (3,47 milyar dolara kar\u015f\u0131), GWM\u2019de 36 milyar dolar net yeni varl\u0131k ve en az 1 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri al\u0131m; Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n vergi \u00f6ncesi k\u00e2r\u0131 2,68 milyar euro (2,39 milyar euroya kar\u015f\u0131), Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelirinde %19 art\u0131\u015f ve 2Y\u2019de 500 milyon euroluk geri al\u0131m yer ald\u0131. BASF 1 milyar euroya kadar geri al\u0131m; Eni geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 3,4 milyar euroya y\u00fckseltti ve 2 milyar dolarl\u0131k Ares ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Reckitt 500 milyon sterline kadar; Logitech ise 3\u00c7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda 200 milyon dolara kadar risk uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Verilerde Avustralya T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 ve \u00e7eyreklik %0,6; Almanya ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,1; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k net t\u00fcketici kredisi 1,8 milyar sterlin ve net kredi geni\u015flemesi 7,7 milyar sterlin, konut kredisi onaylar\u0131 58,2 bin; \u0130sve\u00e7 GSYH g\u00f6stergesi \u00e7eyreklik %1,4 yer ald\u0131. IMF tahminleri 2026 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %3,0 ve 2027\u2019yi %3,4 g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; AB %0,9, Almanya %0,7, Fransa %0,6 ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k %1,0 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki tanker aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI\u2019\u0131n 82 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesiyle, enerji taraf\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kritik deniz yolu g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na arac\u0131l\u0131k ediyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir abluka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyatlar\u0131 95 dolar band\u0131na kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte jeopolitik arz \u015foklar\u0131, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 %15 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikledi; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu geceki FOMC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sabit getirili t\u00fcrevlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131; piyasa, ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %30 civar\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in tarihsel olarak piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndayken faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f tahvil piyasas\u0131nda sert \u015fok yaratabilir ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisini mevcut %4,61 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya getiri e\u011frisindeki ani yukar\u0131 kaymadan faydalanmak \u00fczere payer swaplara giri\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 ve Japon yeni yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u00f6zellikle Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu hafta toplant\u0131 yaparken USD\/JPY 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihi zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz gelmesi veya Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 durumunda, g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle dolar endeksi (DXY) son d\u00f6nemdeki dar banttan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapabilir. H\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015flerini yakalamak i\u00e7in, euro ve yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131nda \u201cvade d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla bu momentumu i\u015flemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI\u2019deki dramatik %6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve artan yapay zek\u00e2 finansman\u0131 endi\u015feleri, teknoloji rotasyonunun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle hisse portf\u00f6ylerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma (downside protection) \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu hafta b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, implied volatilite a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f yar\u0131 iletken hisselerinde sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket potansiyeline k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece ucuz. Bunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde put spread al\u0131m\u0131 veya daha geni\u015f bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesinden faydalanmak \u00fczere VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar hesapla\u015fma modunda: Avrupa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131, KOSPI %6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc %3+ y\u00fckseltti (WTI 82$). G\u00f6zler FOMC\u2019de; opsiyonlarla petrol\/kur yukar\u0131, endekste a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t