Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde %0,11 y\u00fckselerek 53.000 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karken, S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,16 art\u0131\u015fla 7.480 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,17 gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 27.870\u2019e indi. ABD endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri, piyasalar\u0131n yeniden t\u0131rmanan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimini yakla\u015fan Fed karar\u0131yla birlikte fiyatlamas\u0131yla kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi. ABD ordusu, b\u00f6lgede konu\u015flu Amerikan askerlerini hedef alan ve \u201cs\u00fcrpriz\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi bir \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131 giri\u015fimini engelledi\u011fini bildirdi. Bu geli\u015fme, g\u00f6reli sakinli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan enerji arz\u0131nda kesinti ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran destekli Irakl\u0131 milisler, ikinci g\u00fcnde de Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki petrol tesislerine \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi; hasar\u0131n boyutu hen\u00fcz netle\u015fmedi. CENTCOM daha sonra Irak\u2019ta, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ve Suudi enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olduklar\u0131 belirtilen gruplar\u0131 hedef alan hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Para politikas\u0131 cephesinde faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenirken, fiyatlamalar an\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %31,5; ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %79,0 olarak i\u015faret etti. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc spot seansta Dow %1,03 y\u00fckselirken S&P 500 %0,21 artt\u0131; Nasdaq Composite %0,22 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Asya\u2019da ise G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI bir devre kesici sonras\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %10,84 kay\u0131pla kapat\u0131rken Tayvan TAIEX %4,65 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in politika karar\u0131 bug\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131rken ve piyasalar \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde an\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %31,5 olarak fiyatlarken, faiz t\u00fcrevi i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ani oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %79,0 olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine (Treasury) opsiyonlar\u0131 ve Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. Bu \u015fahin kayma, A\u011fustos\u2019a girerken artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamay\u0131 ana \u00f6ncelik haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik alevlenmeler, Suudi petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 dahil, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 aksatma ve enflasyonu s\u0131\u00e7ratma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Portf\u00f6yleri ani arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in Brent ve WTI ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de askeri tansiyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, hisse piyasas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem hacmi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
De\u011fer (value) temal\u0131 i\u015flemler ile derinle\u015fen yar\u0131 iletken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI\u2019nin %10,84 \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ve Tayvan TAIEX\u2019in %4,65 gerilemesi bunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu farktan, 27.870 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nasdaq 100\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak ve 53.000 civar\u0131ndaki daha diren\u00e7li Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon alarak yararlanabilir. Bu \u201cuzun de\u011fer, k\u0131sa teknoloji\u201d spread stratejisi, pahal\u0131 donan\u0131m ve \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerinden agresif rotasyondan faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u015firket bazl\u0131 opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 kullanarak bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yakalamak da g\u00fcndemde olmal\u0131. Ford gibi \u015firketler beklentileri a\u015farak beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, teknoloji devleri rekor k\u00e2rlara ra\u011fmen gerileyebiliyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sapmalar\u0131 dahi cezaland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. VIX gibi volatilite t\u00fcrevlerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131, son derece hassas ve par\u00e7al\u0131 bu i\u015flem ortam\u0131nda y\u00f6n bulmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar Fed \u00f6ncesi diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Dow ve S&P vadeli art\u0131da, Nasdaq geride. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve Suudi petrol tesislerine \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %79.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t