\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015flemesi ve piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Suudi g\u00fc\u00e7leri, \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019na (IRGC) ba\u011fl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na yan\u0131t olarak ABD ile birlikte Irak\u2019ta \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131 vururken, \u0130ran da \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Petrol, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi; WTI 81 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 y\u00fckseldi. Brent\u2019te ise \u00f6nceki sakin seyir, ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden sal\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 84,09 dolara kadar geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde %16,5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan erken i\u015flemlerde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi, konumlanman\u0131n temkinli kalmas\u0131yla 101,30 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, CME FedWatch Arac\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak i\u015faret etti. EUR\/USD 1,1400 yak\u0131n\u0131nda tutunurken, GBP\/USD 1,3300\u2019un \u00fczerine hafif\u00e7e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve USD\/JPY 163,50 civar\u0131na geriledi. Avustralya\u2019da T\u00dcFE, haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019e gerileyerek (tahmin %4) AUD\/USD\u2019yi iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 0,6950 civar\u0131na itti. Alt\u0131n, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde dengelendi.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak %4\u2019l\u00fck keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sergilerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011fun oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 1990 K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 \u015foku gibi Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ani jeopolitik gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. Y\u00f6n riskini \u00fcstlenmeden bu b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ve Brent opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in politika karar\u0131 y\u00fcksek riskli bir tablo sunuyor; s\u00fcrpriz 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalinin %30 seviyesinde olmas\u0131 bile piyasalar\u0131 tetikte tutuyor. Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutup \u015fahin bir tonunu korumas\u0131 halinde, ABD, Avrupa ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. Getiri e\u011frisinde olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczle\u015fmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, Avustralya\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun haziranda %3,8\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6950 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, 1,1400\u2019de istikrarl\u0131 EUR\/USD ve 1,3300\u2019deki GBP\/USD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. Riskli varl\u0131klarda daha geni\u015f bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in AUD \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n tarihi 4.000 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde istikrar kazanmas\u0131, jeopolitik gerilimler t\u0131rman\u0131rken defansif konumlanma i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda y\u00fckselerek g\u00fcvenilir bir de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Rekor fiyat seviyelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fcksek prim maliyetini y\u00f6netirken ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalamak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bull call spread pozisyonlar\u0131na girilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131rken g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131, petrol sert d\u00f6nd\u00fc (WTI +%4), alt\u0131n 4.000$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Dolar yatay; AUD enflasyonla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Straddle\/hedge \u00f6nerileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t