Asya hisseleri, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin Kospi endeksinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yar\u0131 iletkenlerdeki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kospi %6\u2019y\u0131 a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ayl\u0131k kayb\u0131n\u0131 (MTD) %33\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i %8\u2019lik gerileme ise 20 dakikal\u0131k ek bir devre kesiciyi tetikledi. SK Hynix, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ra\u011fmen bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 %20\u2019ye varan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc; piyasada odak, artan capex, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hissedar getirileri ve uzun vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc fiyatlama dinamiklerine kayd\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi, ABD\u2019nin bir \u0130ran f\u00fczesini engelledi\u011fini bildirmesi ve ABD ile Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Irak\u2019ta \u0130ran destekli hedefleri vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu durum H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na dikkati yeniden \u00e7evirdi. Brent s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselse de 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 85,68 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da 2026 2\u00c7 T\u00dcFE verilerinin beklentilerden yumu\u015fak gelmesi AUD\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131rken ASX 200\u2019\u00fc destekledi; k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama (trimmed-mean) hem piyasa beklentilerinin hem de RBA tahminlerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar beklenen RBA s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 20 baz puandan yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 baz puana indirdi. ABS verileri konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeyle ula\u015f\u0131m maliyetleri ayl\u0131k %2,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ticarete konu kalemlerde enflasyon %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flarken ticarete konu olmayanlar %4,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6zler ard\u0131ndan Fed\u2019e \u00e7evriliyor: 88 ekonomistin neredeyse tamam\u0131 faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; OIS yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in 22 baz puan fiyatl\u0131yor ve iki muhalif oy bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde artan oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015f teknoloji endekslerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcney Kore Kospi\u2019nin tarihteki en k\u00f6t\u00fc ay\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fay\u0131p ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %33 gerilemesi, pozisyonlar\u0131n sert \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli tepki rallilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019deki teknoloji sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 gibi kalabal\u0131k i\u015flemlerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme d\u00f6nemlerinde, y\u00fcksek beta \u00e7ip hisseleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir dip bulmadan \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca oynak seanslar ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ise jeopolitik risk primlerinin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla Brent petrolde vade ba\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n (near-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir f\u00fczenin engellenmesi ve akabinde Irak\u2019taki koalisyon sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, d\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi hayati H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden risk alt\u0131na soktu. Brent \u015fu anda 85,68 ABD dolar\u0131 seviyesindeki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lan\u0131yor; ancak olas\u0131 yeni askeri t\u0131rmanmalar fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla 90 ABD dolar\u0131 e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Kur yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (AUD) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 satma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde cazip bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklenenden zay\u0131f gelen 2. \u00e7eyrek Avustralya enflasyonu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini yaln\u0131zca 13 baz puana kadar indirmesine neden oldu; bu da olas\u0131 bir A\u011fustos art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 adeta yaz\u0131-tura ihtimaline \u00e7evirdi. Ticaret d\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyon %4,9 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmaya devam etse de, T\u00dcFE\u2019deki genel so\u011fuma e\u011filimi RBA\u2019n\u0131n harekete ge\u00e7mesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak yerel paran\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD tahvilleri ve USD\u2019de artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Gecelik endeks swap (OIS) piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %35\u2019i h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma yaparken, temel senaryomuz faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 muhalefetle bir \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 halinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme beklenebilir; bu da USD k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev yap\u0131land\u0131rmalar i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok dalgas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Kospi yar\u0131 iletken sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla %33 MTD \u00e7\u00f6kerken devre kesici \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Brent\u2019i H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle destekliyor. Yumu\u015fak Avustralya enflasyonu AUD\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t