ING, ge\u00e7en ayki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 31 Temmuz\u2019da politika faizini %1,00 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka, baz\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ve ekim ay\u0131nda bir ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlasa da, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin bir ayarlaman\u0131n yeni anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi ya da USD\/JPY patikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in fazla alan g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bunun yerine ING, USD\/JPY\u2019nin temel olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201creaksiyon fonksiyonu\u201d taraf\u0131ndan belirlendi\u011fini, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise yak\u0131n vadede kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r konumunda oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re Fed beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmedi\u011fi veya Brent $70\/varil seviyesine geri \u00e7ekilmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, BoJ karar\u0131na kadar USD\/JPY 163\/164 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda destekli kalabilir; Ba\u015fkan Ueda bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa 165 testine y\u00f6nelik \u201cu\u00e7\u201d bir risk de bulunuyor. Notta ayr\u0131ca, nisan sonu\/may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k $70 milyar harcanmas\u0131na ve kalan $1,09 trilyonluk d\u00f6viz rezervlerine at\u0131fla FX m\u00fcdahalesi riski de hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. ING, y\u0131l sonu USD\/JPY tahminini, Fed\u2019den yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmemesi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla 158\u2019de korurken, yurti\u00e7i sermayenin daha fazla i\u00e7eride tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik edecek ad\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlara da de\u011finiyor.<\/p>\n
31 Temmuz\u2019daki Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yen taraf\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini %1,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131n USD\/JPY paritesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmekte muhtemelen yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yurti\u00e7i faiz kararlar\u0131 yerine, makro yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015fan Fed sinyallerine ve k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetlerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde odaklanmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na $80 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 yen \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek USD\/JPY\u2019yi 163-164 band\u0131nda destekli tutuyor. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, Japon faizlerinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ayarlamalara k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha do\u011frudan bir korelasyona sahip oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Fed bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015funu korursa, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 165 seviyesini test etmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n
Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, beklenmedik kur m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha \u00f6nce piyasa m\u00fcdahalelerinde $60 milyar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kaynak kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve h\u00e2len $1,09 trilyon gibi dev bir d\u00f6viz rezervi bulunduruyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cm\u00fchimmat\u201d, 165 seviyesini Japon otoritelerinin devreye girip dolar satma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik bir e\u015fik haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na do\u011fru ise, k\u00fcresel faiz bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifledik\u00e7e USD\/JPY\u2019nin zamanla 158 seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu muhtemel d\u00fczeltmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in 165\u2019e yak\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fleri satma (fade) stratejilerini sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u015eimdilik en do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00e7evik kalmak ve uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ani ve sert kamu m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 korumak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ\u2019un 31 Temmuz\u2019da faizi %1\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00f6n\u00fc Fed ve Brent belirliyor: 163-164 deste\u011fi korunabilir, Ueda s\u00fcrpriziyle 165 riski ve m\u00fcdahale g\u00f6lgesi var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t