{"id":51911,"date":"2026-07-29T07:52:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T07:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogu-gerilimiyle-petrol-sicrarken-rupi-geriledi-gozler-fed-kararinda\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T07:52:31","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T07:52:31","slug":"orta-dogu-gerilimiyle-petrol-sicrarken-rupi-geriledi-gozler-fed-kararinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogu-gerilimiyle-petrol-sicrarken-rupi-geriledi-gozler-fed-kararinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle petrol s\u0131\u00e7rarken rupi geriledi, g\u00f6zler Fed karar\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rd\u0131; USD\/INR g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirveye yak\u0131n 95,85 seviyesine do\u011fru toparland\u0131. \u00d6\u011fleden sonraki i\u015flemlerde 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %3,4 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.860 rupiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7 seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ini ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, rezervlerden yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, AlJazeera\u2019ya g\u00f6re ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Irak\u2019ta \u0130ran destekli gruplara y\u00f6nelik \u201cnokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan enerji risk primlerini y\u00fckseltti. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na odakland\u0131; IRGC \u00fc\u00e7 petrol tankerinin \u201cvuruldu\u011funu ve durduruldu\u011funu\u201d s\u00f6yleyerek ge\u00e7i\u015fin kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. G\u00f6zler daha sonra 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. CME FedWatch, faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %69,5 olarak fiyatlarken, DXY %0,13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 101,25 civar\u0131na geriledi. USD\/INR 95,70 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda seyrederek 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,8921\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI (14) 50 civar\u0131nda. \u0130zlenecek seviyeler 97,10, 95,51 ve 95,00.<\/p>\n

Volatilite G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/INR paritesinde rupiyi z\u0131t y\u00f6nlerde \u00e7eken g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kurun 95,89 seviyesindeki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda gezinmesi, beklenen sert dalgalanmalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle stratejilerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi hayati ticaret rotalar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit eden jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde kur volatilite endeksleri %15 ila %20 artma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir; bu da prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

MCX ham petrolde %3,4\u2019l\u00fck sert y\u00fckseli\u015fle 7.860 rupiye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00fclkenin ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %85\u2019ini ithal etmesi nedeniyle Hindistan\u2019\u0131n mali dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011frudan risk olu\u015fturuyor. Y\u00fcksek ithalat maliyetlerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi zay\u0131f rupi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, USD\/INR\u2019de 97,10 ana direncini hedefleyen bo\u011fa call spreadleri kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 her %10 y\u00fckseli\u015fin, yerel petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan dolar talebi nedeniyle haftalar i\u00e7inde rupiyi yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 zay\u0131flatabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Rupi \u0130\u00e7in Ba\u015fl\u0131ca Riskler ve Destek Unsurlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI\u2019daki sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 k\u00fcresel fonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla Hindistan hisselerine yeniden tahsisini tetikleyerek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir denge unsuru olu\u015fturabilir. Yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri, \u00f6nceki Do\u011fu Asya piyasa d\u00fczeltmeleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k 3 milyar\u20135 milyar dolarl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 taklit ederse, rupi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulabilir. Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal al\u0131mlar h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flarsa, 95,51 ve 95,00 destek seviyelerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini ve bu b\u00f6lgelerde put opsiyonu yaz\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %69,5 iken, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden yerel ak\u0131mlar ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere kayacakt\u0131r. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin 50 civar\u0131nda oyalanmas\u0131, y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n hen\u00fcz garanti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm netle\u015fene kadar pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n muhafazak\u00e2r tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 95,90 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rupi \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fi bitirdi; petrol %3,4 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p ithalat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski volatiliteyi y\u00fckseltiyor. Fed karar\u0131, USD\/INR\u2019de 97,10\u201395,00 band\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t