Alt\u0131n, Asya i\u015flemlerinde alt\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.000 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi; XAU\/USD en son 4.028,78 dolarda seyrederken piyasalar Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. ABD Dolar\u0131, haziran ay\u0131 mal ticaret dengesi verisinin beklentiden zay\u0131f gelmesi ve \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k zirvelerden gelen k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilmeyi korudu. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %4\u2019l\u00fck toparlanmay\u0131 tetiklemesi ise enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rarak Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131, temmuzda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019a (bir hafta \u00f6nce %25) i\u015faret ederken, piyasalar eyl\u00fclde art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %80 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesi de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Spot fiyat 4.070 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 4.202 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bulunuyor; 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar ise 4.447\u20134.491 dolar band\u0131nda k\u00fcmeleniyor. RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 seviyesinde. Commerzbank, y\u0131l sonu tahminini ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.800 dolardan 4.500 dolara \u00e7ekti; 2027 sonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc de 5.200 dolardan 5.000 dolara indirdi. Banka ayr\u0131ca %2 enflasyon hedefinin 2027 ilkbahar\u0131nda yakalanmas\u0131na ve 2027 ortas\u0131ndan itibaren faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da at\u0131fta bulundu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, alt\u0131n kritik 4.000 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 masada tutmas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itmesi, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli seyrini olduk\u00e7a belirsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ortamda, olas\u0131 ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayan ve sermayeyi esnek tutan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine \u00f6ncelik vermeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n, 4.070 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131n piyasada h\u00e2l\u00e2 kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in aktif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde alt\u0131n \u00f6nemli desteklerin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. 4.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir kaymadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bear put spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ili\u015fkin veriler, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlerinin de\u011ferli metallerden h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019deki agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel alt\u0131n ETF\u2019leri art arda aylarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flara sahne olmu\u015f, bu da alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Fed eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda benzer bir tasfiye dalgas\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen opsiyon primlerinden yararlanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in 4.200 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki out-of-the-money call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 uygulanabilir bir getiri stratejisi sunuyor. Ancak jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ima edilen volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, beklenmedik fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmak gerekiyor. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlere ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini teyit etmek ad\u0131na yakla\u015fan politika metni yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik 4.000 dolar e\u015fi\u011finde nefesler tutuldu: XAU\/USD 4.029\u2019da, g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 petrol rallisi enflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131rken \u015fahin faiz beklentisi ve negatif teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bask\u0131 kuruyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t