EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 1,1390 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, Fed politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu; piyasada faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisi bask\u0131n. T\u00fcrev piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %30,5 olarak i\u015faret ederken, bunu Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelik %76,6\u2019l\u0131k z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k izliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasalar\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u2019daki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131; geli\u015fmeler enflasyon risklerini ve ABD faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Jeopolitik tansiyon, IRGC\u2019nin ET ile yakla\u015f\u0131k 17:45\u2019te \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc balistik f\u00fczeyle hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), savunma sistemlerinin t\u00fcm f\u00fczeleri engelledi\u011fini; can kayb\u0131, hasar ve kay\u0131p olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan CENTCOM, Irak\u2019ta \u0130ran destekli gruplara y\u00f6nelik, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerini ve Suudi enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef almay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen unsurlara kar\u015f\u0131 nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131 hava operasyonlar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ise ECB, 23 Temmuz\u2019da faizleri oybirli\u011fiyle %2,25\u2019te sabit tutarken Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali verdi; baz\u0131 Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyeleri, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik riskleri nedeniyle hemen art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Fed-ECB aras\u0131ndaki ciddi fiyatlama ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcn beklenmedik bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %30,5 olmas\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyali dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, z\u0131mni volatilite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak benzer merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde, EUR\/USD bir ayl\u0131k opsiyon z\u0131mni volatilitesi ortalama %6,2 seviyelerinden %8,5\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Irak ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de t\u0131rmanan askeri hareketlilik g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerini bozabilecek ani bir ham petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da korunma sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle savunma istihbarat\u0131n\u0131n Suudi enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik risklere dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi ortamda, Brent petrol call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2019 Abqaiq sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tek seansta %15 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; b\u00f6yle bir hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc FX yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, mevcut 1,1390 seviyesinden beklenen sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla long-gamma pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro\u2019nun g\u00fcc\u00fc \u015fu an jeopolitik risklerle s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor; ancak Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn g\u00fcvercin bir \u015fekilde faizi sabit tutmas\u0131, pariteyi h\u0131zla 1,1500 diren\u00e7 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Fed\u2019in piyasay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 halinde 1,1200 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz; bu senaryoda \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: EUR\/USD 1,1390\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Fed\u2019de %30,5 s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f riski ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %76,6 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatlan\u0131yor. Jeopolitik gerilim petrol\/kur volatilitesini art\u0131r\u0131yor; straddle\/Brent call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t