ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ve Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 planlamakla su\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran destekli gruplara kar\u015f\u0131 Irak\u2019ta \u201chassas vuru\u015flar\u201d ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD ordusu ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n TS\u0130 00:45\u2019te (ET 17:45) \u0130ran\u2019dan \u00e7ok say\u0131da balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; t\u00fcm f\u00fczelerin engellendi\u011fini ve ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin y\u00fcksek teyakkuzda kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ekledi. Suudi Arabistan Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Irak\u2019ta \u0130ran destekli gruplara ait hedeflere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 do\u011frularken, Irak\u2019taki Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi (PMF) ise \u00fclke genelinde PMF kararg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ve Suudi birliklerince vuruldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran devlet televizyonu, bir askeri kayna\u011fa dayanarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki hedeflere f\u0131rlat\u0131lan m\u00fchimmata dahil oldu\u011funu reddetti\u011fini aktard\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak IRGC, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate almayan \u00fc\u00e7 petrol tankerinin \u201cvurularak durduruldu\u011funu\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalarda ise WTI, 77 dolar civar\u0131ndaki iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden toparlanarak %4 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 81,60 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risklerin kritik bir e\u015fi\u011fe gelmesiyle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji piyasalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI ham petrolde 81,60 dolara uzanan ani %4\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7rama, piyasada an\u0131nda bir risk priminin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ani fiyat z\u0131plamalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ve Brent\u2019te k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehdit \u00f6zellikle endi\u015fe verici; zira bu kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fc, yani k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor. Tarihsel veriler, bu koridorda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n bile petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; 2019\u2019daki Abqaiq sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Brent petrolde bir g\u00fcnde tarihi %20\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 90 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket i\u00e7in petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bo\u011fa call spread stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Cboe Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin y\u00fckselmesinin beklendi\u011fi bir ortamda, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u201czarar durdurma\u201d niteli\u011finde cazip primler sunabilece\u011finden, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda yaz\u0131m (sat\u0131\u015f) stratejileri de g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Alternatif olarak, enerji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek ETF\u2019lerde uzun straddle stratejisinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde sert fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasalar\u0131n enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle, daha geni\u015f hisse senedi portf\u00f6ylerinin defansif endeks putlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesi de temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ortado\u011fu\u2019da tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: ABD-Suudi \u201chassas vuru\u015flar\u201d, IRGC f\u00fcze ve tanker hamleleriyle risk primi artt\u0131. WTI %4 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; t\u00fcrevde call, bo\u011fa spread, straddle ve hedge \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t