Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (ABS) verilerine g\u00f6re, Avustralya\u2019da T\u00dcFE Haziran\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 artarak May\u0131s\u2019taki %4 seviyesinden geriledi ve %4\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE ise \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %0,7\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %0,1 geriledi; %0,2 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. RBA\u2019n\u0131n K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Ortalama (Trimmed Mean) T\u00dcFE\u2019si ayl\u0131k ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,8 ve %3,6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama T\u00dcFE \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc ayr\u0131ca ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 artarken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6\u2019da sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Veri sonras\u0131 Avustralya dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; AUD\/USD %0,29 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,6954\u2019e inerken, veri \u00f6ncesinde 0,6950 civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. \u00d6nceki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %4, ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin -%0,7 sonras\u0131 %0,2, K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Ortalama T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 %3,7 ve ayl\u0131k %0,4 olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu. Arka planda RBA politika faizi, 2026\u2019da \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %4,35\u2019te tutulurken; petrol g\u00f6stergeleri WTI\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 dolar, Brent\u2019te 84 dolar seviyesinde; Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n ise faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Haziran\u2019da t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde %3,8\u2019e gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f bir Avustralya dolar\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s\u2019taki %4,0 seviyesinden gelen bu beklenti alt\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, RBA\u2019n\u0131n mevcut %4,35 d\u00fczeyinden bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131yor. Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %0,1 daralmas\u0131yla birlikte, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesi AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, 0,6900 destek seviyesini hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla AUD\/USD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Avustralya\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik enflasyonun piyasa beklentisini 0,2 puan veya daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi durumunda, para birimi genellikle birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcren kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, enflasyondaki so\u011fumaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yurti\u00e7i getiriler d\u00fc\u015ferken y\u00fckselme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan Avustralya 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k bank bill vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki devam eden sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131 nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bu enerji kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 talepteki so\u011fumay\u0131 telafi etmeye yetmedi\u011fi kanaatindeyiz. Bug\u00fcn ayr\u0131ca ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131; \u015fahin bir duru\u015f, AUD\/USD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu ortamda, prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in bear put spread stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, AUD\/USD\u2019nin kritik 0,6950 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, son iki haftad\u0131r s\u00fcren n\u00f6tr band\u0131n sona erdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Parite bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flarsa, 0,6900 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya (SMA) do\u011fru alan a\u00e7\u0131labilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem short pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerinde jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klara ba\u011fl\u0131 ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131, 0,7000\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri korunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi! Avustralya T\u00dcFE Haziran\u2019da %3,8\u2019e inip beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; ayl\u0131k %-0,1. RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali zay\u0131flad\u0131, AUD\/USD geriledi; 0,6950 alt\u0131 0,6900 hedefini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t