USD\/MXN Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 17,40 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen m\u00fctevaz\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Son ABD verileri daha zay\u0131f geldi: Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi temmuzda, haziranda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilen 92,2\u2019den 90,8\u2019e gerilerken; NER Pulse raporu, 11 Temmuz\u2019a kadarki d\u00f6rt haftada \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fverenlerinin haftal\u0131k ortalama 15 bin istihdam ekledi\u011fini ve i\u015fe al\u0131m ivmesinin \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci haftada da yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Meksika pesosu, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi ayarlamalar\u0131ndan destek buldu; Washington, USMCA kapsam\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Meksika ithalat\u0131na %10 vergi getirirken, ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 bulunmayan ekonomiler i\u00e7in oran %12,5 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
Odak, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Meksika \u00f6nc\u00fc ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisine kay\u0131yor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekteki %0,6\u2019l\u0131k daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %1,3\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131 beklenirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de \u00f6nceki %0,2 seviyesine k\u0131yasla %1,5\u2019e h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 4 saatlik grafikte USD\/MXN 17,4349 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 100 periyotluk SMA (17,4657) ile 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (17,4722) alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam etti; RSI 45,1 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 17,4399 ve 17,4584\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan 17,4837 ve 17,4928\u2019de bulunurken; destek 22 Temmuz dip seviyesi olan 17,38 civar\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Fed\u2019in g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 kullanarak yak\u0131n vadeli volatiliteye pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki 90,8 seviyesine gerileme ve yava\u015flayan istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak y\u00f6nlendirmede (guidance) beklenmedik bir de\u011fi\u015fim sert hareketleri tetikleyebilir. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in ileti\u015fim tonundaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimler, USD\/MXN paritesinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck %1,5\u2019i a\u015fan dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 20 ve 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n k\u00fcmelendi\u011fi 17,44\u201317,47 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki yo\u011fun diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa pozisyon aramak uygun olacakt\u0131r. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 45,1 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden \u00f6nce a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket alan\u0131 bulunuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 17,38 destek seviyesini hedefleyen ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread\u2019lerden yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Meksika \u00f6nc\u00fc 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131; verinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir %1,3\u2019l\u00fck toparlanma g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye y\u0131ll\u0131k 475 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki ihracat\u0131yla \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ticaret yap\u0131s\u0131, pesonun temel dinamiklerini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. Buna ek olarak, yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan %10\u2019luk tarife oran\u0131n\u0131n\u2014USMCA d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelere uygulanan %12,5\u2019lik orandan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131\u2014Meksika\u2019n\u0131n rekabet avantaj\u0131n\u0131 koruyor ve USD\/MXN\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banco de M\u00e9xico\u2019nun politika faizini Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir seviyede, %11,00\u2019de tutmas\u0131yla carry trade cazibesi y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/MXN call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi getiri hasad\u0131 odakl\u0131 t\u00fcrev yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, hem y\u00fcksek faiz fark\u0131ndan hem de paritenin mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminden yararlanmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi USD\/MXN 17,40\u2019ta zay\u0131flarken ABD verileri so\u011fuyor; peso tarifelerden destek buluyor. G\u00f6zler Meksika 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019de. 17,44\u201317,47 diren\u00e7, 17,38 destek; opsiyonlarla volatilite av\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t