Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 52.900\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 puan, yani %1,3 y\u00fckseldi ve temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki rekorun yakla\u015f\u0131k 450 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ancak y\u00fczeydeki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00e7ip taraf\u0131ndaki stresle tezat olu\u015fturdu: yar\u0131 iletken kompleksi bu ay %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybederken, Kore\u2019nin g\u00f6sterge endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k %11\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n dokuzuncu devre kesicisini tetikledi. ABD\u2019de S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 11 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden 9\u2019u y\u00fckseldi; sa\u011fl\u0131k ve finansallar rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131, t\u00fcketici temel mallar\u0131 tek bir bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla %4\u2019e yak\u0131n prim yapt\u0131; teknoloji ise may\u0131s\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dow\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fi fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yap\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Sherwin-Williams, ikinci \u00e7eyrek beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar ve y\u0131l geneli tahmin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 %8 y\u00fckselirken, Coca-Cola da k\u00e2r beklentisini a\u015fmas\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle %5 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Di\u011fer tarafta Micron yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 ve AMD yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 geriledi; ikisi de Dow\u2019un puan hesab\u0131n\u0131 etkilemedi; endekste tek \u00e7ip \u00fcreticisi Nvidia. Destekleyici makro ko\u015fullar da devredeydi: WTI %5 civar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 78,00 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda, Brent ise 84,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti. Odak, \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019deki faiz karar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc; %3,75 beklenirken, vadeli i\u015flemler temmuzda art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te bir olarak fiyatl\u0131yor, eyl\u00fcle kadar en az bir art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %80\u2019e yak\u0131n. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc PCE enflasyonu (man\u015fet ayl\u0131k %-0,1 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7; \u00f6nceki %4,1, \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; bunun yan\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,1 GSYH ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 187 binden 200 bine y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise ECI %0,8, Chicago PMI 56, Michigan G\u00fcven Endeksi 54 ve bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,2 takip edilecek. Teknik seviyelerde 52.900\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131 diren\u00e7, ard\u0131ndan 53.000 ve 53.300\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerindeki rekor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; destek 52.600, ard\u0131ndan 52.200, 52.000 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 51.600 seviyesinde. 52.600 \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi korunurken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 52.200 alt\u0131na inmesi bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Para, y\u00fcksek primli teknoloji hisselerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p defansif, eski ekonomi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 mavi \u00e7iplere akarken b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme tan\u0131k oluyoruz. Bu sekt\u00f6r rotasyonu, yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn bu ay ac\u0131 verici %20\u2019lik bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015famas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019ni 52.900\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tercih, teknolojide \u201cd\u00fc\u015fen b\u0131\u00e7a\u011f\u0131\u201d yakalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak yerine sa\u011fl\u0131k ve finansallar gibi geride kalm\u0131\u015f de\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dow\u2019da psikolojik 53.000 seviyesini ve 53.300\u2019daki tarihi zirveyi hedeflemek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Dow fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in Sherwin-Williams ve Coca-Cola gibi a\u011f\u0131r toplardan gelecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 teknoloji zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak endeksi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya devam edecektir. Bu arada, endeksin \u00f6zg\u00fcn bile\u015fimi teknoloji sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131ndan onu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde izole etti\u011fi i\u00e7in geni\u015f endeks put\u2019lar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Rotasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha ucuz enerjiye ba\u011fl\u0131; \u015fu anda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki diplomatik ilerlemenin Brent\u2019i 84 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131 bunu destekliyor. Tarihsel veriler, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde enerji maliyetleri gev\u015fedi\u011finde d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisselerin takip eden ayda teknolojiye kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama %4,2 daha iyi performans sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu enerji tamponunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli petrol volatilitesinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131rken, faizlere duyarl\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcsellerde uzun (long) pozisyonu korumay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci kritik de\u011fi\u015fken faiz e\u011frisi: Piyasa, bu hafta baz senaryo %3,75\u2019te sabit kalma olsa da eyl\u00fcle kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %80 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE enflasyonu ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi (ECI) \u00f6ncesinde faiz hassas varl\u0131klarda koruyucu put\u2019lar almal\u0131. Bu enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri beklenen %3,3 \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k seviyesinden daha s\u0131cak gelirse, ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fme Dow\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015f tezini h\u0131zla bozabilir.<\/p>\n
Spot fiyatlar 52.600\u2019daki kritik destek band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Dow\u2019da net bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 52.200 alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00f6nyarg\u0131y\u0131 ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n derhal kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 20 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, k\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 yatayla\u015fmalar trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow 52.900\u2019e dayand\u0131; rekorun 450 puan gerisinde. Ancak \u00e7ipler ayda %20 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, teknoloji zay\u0131f. Enerji geriliyor. G\u00f6zler Fed ve PCE\u2019de; 52.600 \u00fcst\u00fc pozitif, 52.200 alt\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t