ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fimdilik durdurmas\u0131yla Brent sert geri \u00e7ekildi; Ba\u015fkan Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in \u201ciyi bir \u015fans\u201d bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc, fiziki arz g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab el-Mendeb\u2019den ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015flar ile Karadeniz ihracat dinamikleri mercek alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilmesi i\u00e7in, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en hacimlerde bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekirken, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Karadeniz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan yeniden y\u00fcklemelerin artmas\u0131 da fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. CPC terminali ve \u015ee\u015fharis terminalinde petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015fl\u0131yor; bir anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131ksa bile, m\u00fczakerelerin h\u0131zla bozulabilmesi nedeniyle fiyatlamada bir risk priminin korunmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli olmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve bu sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fine gere\u011finden agresif bi\u00e7imde tak\u0131lmamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent ham petrol, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik iyimserlikle son d\u00f6nemde 75 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru gerilerken, bu t\u00fcr siyasi at\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n tarihte son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde tek bir kopu\u015f, fiyatlar\u0131 an\u0131nda yeniden 85 dolara do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in fiziki sevkiyat hacimlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk geliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve Bab el-Mendeb bo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n her ikisinde de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7i\u015f rakamlar\u0131nda do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f ve istikrarl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6rmedik\u00e7e, piyasadaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan\u0131n kat\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ikili \u201canla\u015fma ya da anla\u015fma yok\u201d ortam\u0131nda, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00f6n tahmini yerine uzun volatilite stratejilerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Diplomasi beklentisiyle ima edilen volatilite yumu\u015farken, straddle veya geni\u015f strangle yap\u0131lar\u0131yla prim almak, ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m sermayeyi korurken, m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015far\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ya da \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz sert k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanacak pozisyonlanma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Karadeniz ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131, yak\u0131n vadeli arz modellerine d\u00e2hil edilmeli. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn kapasiteye sahip CPC terminali ile \u015ee\u015fharis terminali yeniden y\u00fcklemeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu ilave fiziki arz\u0131n, yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli kontratlarda bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; bu da, en yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlarda bear put spread\u2019leri uygulanabilir bir hedge se\u00e7ene\u011fi h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent\u2019te sert sat\u0131\u015f: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201canla\u015fma \u015fans\u0131\u201d fiyatlar\u0131 geriletti. Y\u00f6n\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz-Bab el-Mendeb ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Karadeniz ihracat\u0131 belirleyecek; risk primi, volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t