TD Securities, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CHF) \u015eubat 2026 sonundaki \u0130ran \u015fokundan bu yana sergiledi\u011fi zay\u0131f performans\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) profiline ve alt\u0131ndaki hareketlere ba\u011fl\u0131yor. CHF, bu d\u00f6nemde SEK ile birlikte k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren para birimleri aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131; Mart\u2019\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 yerini daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 ve 2026 vadesiz mevduat de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131yla TD, EUR\/CHF gibi CHF \u00e7aprazlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmede makro fakt\u00f6rler ile k\u00fcresel faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131n daha belirleyici hale geldi\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Not, ilave bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak alt\u0131na da i\u015faret ediyor; TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re, EUR\/CHF\u2019nin y\u00fckselmesinde carry\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcl\u00e7enin de rol\u00fc var. TD, ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara vermesi halinde rallinin ivme kaybedebilece\u011fini; CHF\u2019te kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u00e7in ise alt\u0131nda ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin bir ko\u015ful oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir ECB art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha ve ard\u0131ndan \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d senaryosunda AB\u2013\u0130svi\u00e7re faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n zirve yapmas\u0131; alt\u0131n\u0131n ise yak\u0131n vadede 3.900 $\/ons seviyesine geriledikten sonra toparlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TD\u2019nin 2026 y\u0131l sonu tahmini EUR\/CHF\u2019nin 0,93 civar\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, \u015eubat sonras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ivme kaybetmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019nda bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki jeopolitik \u015foktan bu yana Frank, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili carry dinamikleri nedeniyle maj\u00f6r para birimleri aras\u0131nda en zay\u0131flardan biri oldu. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika faizini sabit tutarken, bundan sonra para biriminin seyrini k\u00fcresel faiz kararlar\u0131 belirleyecek.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira alt\u0131n, Frank\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlemesi \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etkiye sahip. Alt\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fler kaydetmi\u015f olsa da, yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce ons ba\u015f\u0131na 3.900 dolara do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften, yak\u0131n vadeli alt\u0131n sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda, paritede yakla\u015fan bir zirveye haz\u0131rl\u0131k amac\u0131yla EUR\/CHF sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro\u2019daki g\u00fcc\u00fcn, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. EUR\/CHF\u2019nin y\u0131l sonuna kadar yeniden 0,93 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca k\u0131sa-CHF carry i\u015flemlerinin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira risk-getiri dengesi art\u0131k cazip de\u011fil. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de vadesiz mevduatlarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimler, yerel parasal fakt\u00f6rlerin istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederken, para birimini k\u00fcresel oynakl\u0131\u011fa daha duyarl\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel getirilerde ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Frank\u2019ta h\u0131zl\u0131 bir short squeeze\u2019i tetikleyerek haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ters yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: CHF alarm veriyor! TD Securities, \u0130ran \u015foku sonras\u0131 Frank\u2019taki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck carry ve alt\u0131nla ili\u015fkilendiriyor; SNB sabit, y\u00f6n\u00fc k\u00fcresel faizler belirliyor. Hedef: EUR\/CHF 0,93; put \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t