ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n art\u0131k anla\u015fmalar\u0131 ihlal edemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken; elektrik santralleri ve k\u00f6pr\u00fcler gibi kritik altyap\u0131lara y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Fox News\u2019e konu\u015fan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yer alt\u0131ndaki n\u00fckleer tesislerinden Pickaxe Mountain\u2019\u0131 \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun de\u011fil\u201d diye nitelendirdi ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda art\u0131k \u201c\u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Washington\u2019un Tahran \u00fczerindeki diplomatik bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kapsam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fine i\u015faret etmesiyle, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yak\u0131n vadeli bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa dair piyasa endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131. D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, r\u00f6portaj\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 101,53 civar\u0131nda yataya d\u00f6nerken, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc bas\u0131n saati itibar\u0131yla %1,24 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 80,20 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik tansiyonun so\u011fumas\u0131yla birlikte, enerji t\u00fcrevleri yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n petroldeki risk priminde ilave bir gerilemeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI\u2019\u0131n 80,20 dolara kaymas\u0131yla, b\u00f6lgesel altyap\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tehdidinin azalmas\u0131 put opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131 ya da vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel veriler, askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f korkular\u0131 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131kla 5 ila 10 dolarl\u0131k primi geri verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda WTI\u2019\u0131 70\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131na do\u011fru \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde ima edilen volatilitedeki (implied volatility) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften de faydalanmak gerekir. Endi\u015felerin hafiflemesi, son \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) muhtemelen tarihsel ortalamas\u0131na d\u00f6nmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ham petrolde iron condor sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa volatilite stratejileri uygulayarak prim erimesini h\u0131zla fiyatlayabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda DXY\u2019\u0131n 101,53\u2019e zay\u0131flamas\u0131, yeniden \u201crisk i\u015ftah\u0131\u201d (risk-on) ortam\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali veriyor. Kritik 101,00 destek seviyesini test eden dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Euro veya Japon Yeni gibi maj\u00f6r para birimlerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, diplomatik gerilimin azalmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde yatay ya da zay\u0131flayan dolar geli\u015fen piyasa varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 destekler; bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6viz swaplar\u0131 daha cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut rahatlamaya kar\u015f\u0131n temkinli olmak gerekiyor; zira y\u00f6netim, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmalara uyumu konusunda sert tutumunu koruyor. Diplomatik s\u00f6ylemde olas\u0131 ani bir de\u011fi\u015fim bu piyasa e\u011filimlerini h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011finden, petrol k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri kritik. Beklenmedik jeopolitik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, portf\u00f6y\u00fcn k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcvenli limanlarda ucuz, uzun vadeli (long-dated) call opsiyonlar\u0131na ay\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump\u2019tan \u0130ran mesaj\u0131: \u201c\u0130hlal yok\u201d, kritik altyap\u0131ya dokunmama sinyali. Piyasalar rahatlad\u0131; DXY 101,53\u2019e gev\u015fedi, WTI %1,24 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 80,20$. Petrol primi\/OVX gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t