Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc gerilerken, petrol de ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sona erebilece\u011fine dair umutlarla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Spot fiyat, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015faramas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 4.034 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve y\u00fczde 1,0 de\u011fer kaybetti. Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin iyi gitti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde askeri eylemlerin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; \u0130ran ise ABD ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri reddetti. Umman da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc \u00fccretler\u201d yoluyla ortak y\u00f6netimini i\u00e7eren bir plan sundu; bu, g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol, ge\u00e7en haftaki t\u00fcm kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri vermi\u015f durumda; WTI 80,15 dolar civar\u0131nda ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n fiyatlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyrederek enflasyonu g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda: politika faizinin y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak CME FedWatch Tool, Kevin Warsh ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 35 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.072 dolar) alt\u0131nda; RSI 43,42 ve ADX 32 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.072 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.179 dolar olarak izlenirken, destek 4.000 dolar ve alt bantta yakla\u015f\u0131k 3.964 dolar seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saat boyunca yo\u011fun volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa, mevcut y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 seviyesinde \u201cpas\u201d ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karsa da s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 35 olmas\u0131, uygun bir hedge olmaks\u0131z\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00f6nl\u00fc (naked) pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Tarihsel veriler, ani ve beklenmedik faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131ymetli metallerde birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 5 ila y\u00fczde 10 aras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu y\u00fcksek riskli Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik olarak, XAU\/USD \u00fczerinde her iki y\u00f6nde sert k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun strangle opsiyon stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde, alt Bollinger band\u0131 olan 3.964 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen put opsiyonlar\u0131 derhal al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Fed\u2019in \u201cpas\u201d sinyali verip enflasyonu ikinci plana itmesi durumunda, alt\u0131n\u0131n 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 4.072 dolar\u0131 yeniden kazanma \u00e7abas\u0131yla call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n\n
ABD T\u00dcFE enflasyonu h\u00e2len y\u00fczde 3 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde seyrederken ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,15 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, getiri sa\u011flamayan alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Jeopolitik gerilimler yeniden t\u0131rmanmad\u0131k\u00e7a, bu makro arka plan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimi destekledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, psikolojik 4.000 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa-orta vadeli bear put spread stratejileri tercih edilmelidir.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde, 80,15 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren WTI yak\u0131ndan izlenmelidir; son zirvesinden gerilemi\u015f olsa da t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratacak kadar y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nerilen ortak y\u00f6netimi ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olur ve arz endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131rsa, WTI\u2019\u0131n 75 dolara do\u011fru gerilemesini bekliyoruz; bu da bear call spread stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lar. Ancak bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn yeniden 90 dolar band\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, bu pozisyonlar\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirip koruyucu call al\u0131m\u0131na ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi kritik 48 saat: Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken alt\u0131n 4.034 dolara inip 4.000 deste\u011fini test ediyor, petrol bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Piyasada %35 s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131; hedge, strangle, spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t