Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ), Haziran\u2019daki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 31 Temmuz\u2019da politika faizini %1,00 seviyesinde b\u0131rakmas\u0131; ancak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimini faaliyet, fiyatlar ve finansal ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Haziran ortas\u0131ndan bu yana perakende sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, ikinci \u00e7eyrek Tankan anketi g\u00fcveni en son 2018\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da k\u00e2rlar, \u00fccretler, t\u00fcketim ve fiyatlar\u0131n birbirini destekledi\u011fi tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Banka, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve artan enerji maliyetlerinden kaynaklanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerine i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) sermaye harcamalar\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn talebi destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 GSYH art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik projeksiyonlarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda, taze g\u0131da, enerji ve kurumsal fakt\u00f6rler hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, ge\u00e7en yaz %3,6 y\u0131ll\u0131k seviyesinden May\u0131s\u2019ta %2,1\u2019e geriledi. Daha \u00f6nce devreye al\u0131nan ya\u015fam maliyeti \u00f6nlemleri ile Temmuz\u2013Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin elektrik ve do\u011falgaz s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Tankan bazl\u0131 beklentiler t\u00fcm i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131l sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisini y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 g\u00f6sterirken, ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Haziran\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %30 art\u0131\u015fla seyrediyordu ve yen 1980\u2019lerden bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyelerinde bulunuyor. Piyasalar, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n Aral\u0131k yerine Eyl\u00fcl ya da Ekim\u2019de gelip gelmeyece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n %2,00\u2019e daha yak\u0131n olabilece\u011fine dair de\u011ferlendirmeler yap\u0131l\u0131rken, 2\u201310 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) e\u011frisi 2010 zirvelerinden daha dikle\u015fmi\u015f durumda, her ne kadar 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ba\u015fa ba\u015f enflasyon (BEI) yeniden %2,00\u2019ye gerilemi\u015f olsa da. Odak noktas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca dokuz \u00fcyeli y\u00f6netim kurulunda oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olacak; Kajime Nakata\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy verip vermeyece\u011fi ve kendisine Junko Nakagawa ile Naoki Tamura\u2019n\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 izlenecek. Di\u011fer yandan USD\/JPY g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Fed ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenirken, Brent\u2019in 70 dolar\/varil seviyesi kritik bir e\u015fik olarak an\u0131l\u0131yor; spot kurun 163\/164 civar\u0131nda seyredebilece\u011fi, d\u0131\u015fsal bir risk olarak 165\u2019in g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Japonya, para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in Nisan sonu\/May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda 70 milyar dolar harcad\u0131 ve 1,09 trilyon dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz rezervini koruyor; y\u0131l sonu USD\/JPY tahmini 158, Fed\u2019den ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmamas\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Politika tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, 2024 reformlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan NISA\u2019da olas\u0131 d\u00fczenlemeleri ve GPIF varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. Faiz cephesinde, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %2, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 seviyesinde; vadeli fiyatlamalar iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde politika faizinin %2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %2,7 civar\u0131nda, 5\/10 y\u0131ll\u0131k spread yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 baz puan, 30 ve 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler %4\u2019e yak\u0131n. BoJ\u2019un ara vermesi halinde e\u011frinin uzun ucunda getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, TONA bazl\u0131 modellemenin halen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131ya i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ 31 Temmuz\u2019da faizi %1\u2019de tutabilir; ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep, zay\u0131f yen ve ithalat enflasyonu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 canl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\/Ekim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, JGB e\u011frisini ve USD\/JPY 165 riskini izliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t