{"id":51839,"date":"2026-07-28T12:00:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T12:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dbs-fed-faiz-beklentileri-ve-gerileyen-petrol-dolar-uzerinde-baski-kuruyor-dxyde-asagi-yonlu-riskler-one-cikiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T12:00:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T12:00:22","slug":"dbs-fed-faiz-beklentileri-ve-gerileyen-petrol-dolar-uzerinde-baski-kuruyor-dxyde-asagi-yonlu-riskler-one-cikiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-fed-faiz-beklentileri-ve-gerileyen-petrol-dolar-uzerinde-baski-kuruyor-dxyde-asagi-yonlu-riskler-one-cikiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS: Fed faiz beklentileri ve gerileyen petrol dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor; DXY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

DBS Group Research, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasa para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ve Japonya hari\u00e7 Asya paritelerinde farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere \u00e7ekildi\u011fini, tonu ise Fed beklentilerinin belirledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalarda odak para politikas\u0131 olurken, Japonya hari\u00e7 Asya i\u015flemlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 rahatlama etkili oldu. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki fiyatlaman\u0131n, yak\u0131n vadede dolar performans\u0131 i\u00e7in temel \u201csal\u0131n\u0131m\u201d fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ikinci FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %38 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfetti\u011fi ifade edildi. Notta ayr\u0131ca, Fed\u2019in pas ge\u00e7mesi ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi sonland\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmeden faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 halinde DXY sepetinin muhtemelen zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 eklendi.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Kritik Kurulum<\/h3>\n

Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %38 ihtimal bi\u00e7ti\u011fi ortamda, ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir kurulum izliyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 103,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n asimetrik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 halinde, uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme (unwind) bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Senaryosu ve \u0130\u015flem \u00d6nerileri<\/h3>\n

Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu, Brent petrol\u00fcn bu ay %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 76 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine ili\u015fkin son enerji piyasas\u0131 verileriyle de destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, merkez bankalar\u0131na faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara vermek ve \u015fahin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeden vazge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in \u201crahat bir alan\u201d sa\u011flar. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu rahatlamay\u0131, Fed\u2019in hareketsiz kalmay\u0131 tercih edece\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu kurulumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonras\u0131na vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) DXY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, USD bo\u011falar\u0131n\u0131n hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011framas\u0131 halinde sert bir dolar de\u011fer kayb\u0131na pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Ayr\u0131ca, zay\u0131flayan dolar endeksinden en fazla fayda sa\u011flayabilecek Euro veya Yen gibi para birimlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n da de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar i\u00e7in kritik kurulum: Fed beklentileri tonu belirliyor. Vadeli i\u015flemler, ikinci FOMC\u2019de %38 s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Pas ge\u00e7ilirse DXY zay\u0131flayabilir; petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bunu destekliyor. OTM DXY put \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t