Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesi bekleniyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131nan k\u0131sa bir metinle, bunun yerine \u201cy\u00fcksek belirsizlik\u201d vurgusuna ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma yaslanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, ilerleyen toplant\u0131larda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k tutarken buna do\u011frudan taahh\u00fct vermeden esneklik sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bu toplant\u0131da faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u201cdot plot\u201d yay\u0131mlanmayacak; bu da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 bir arka plan\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde, ilan edilmi\u015f bir faiz patikas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck oda\u011f\u0131 azaltacak.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u201cenflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte\u201d gibi ifadelerin kararl\u0131 niyeti i\u015faret edip kesin taahh\u00fctlerden ka\u00e7\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklanacak. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, arz \u015fokunun ve bunun daha geni\u015f fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n piyasalarca nas\u0131l yorumlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirebilir. Vadeli i\u015flemler Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, dolar\u0131 anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacak \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz e\u015fi\u011fi y\u00fcksek; \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 daha da t\u0131rman\u0131p petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 dolar kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesini bekliyoruz; ancak t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n klasik bir \u201cs\u00f6ylentiyi al, haberi sat\u201d senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %95\u2019in \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131kla zaten fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, dolar lehine kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131ta son derece y\u00fcksek. Ba\u015fkan Warsh Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a garanti etmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, son d\u00f6nemde 105 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda seyreden ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 ilk ralli muhtemelen h\u0131zla s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenecektir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli dolar put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ge\u00e7ici dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc satma (fade) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon aranmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00fcksek belirsizlik\u201d d\u00f6nemlerinde net bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131, volatilite yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi primini geri vermesine yol a\u00e7ma e\u011filimindedir. Bu strateji, mu\u011flak para politikas\u0131 mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n ivmeyi ta\u015f\u0131yamay\u0131p nihayetinde dolar bo\u011falar\u0131n\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131yla uyumludur.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, k\u0131sa dolar y\u00f6nl\u00fc bu e\u011filimi; Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden 85-90 dolar band\u0131na iten \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 hedge etmemiz gerekiyor. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanarak ilave bir arz \u015fokuna yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak enerji s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 muhtemelen Fed\u2019in elini zorlayacak ve g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neli\u015fi yeniden h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirerek jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden faydalan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, bu toplant\u0131da faiz projeksiyonlar\u0131na dair yeni bir \u201cdot plot\u201d olmamas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde bir yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamaya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir Fed\u2019le bo\u011fu\u015furken bekledi\u011fimiz sert dalgalanmalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl vadeli Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, son derece ak\u0131\u015fkan bir ortamda Fed\u2019in bir sonraki hamlesinin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeye gerek kalmadan volatiliteden getiri elde etmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019den \u015fahin ton bekleniyor: \u201cy\u00fcksek belirsizlik\u201d vurgusu, dot plot yok. Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatl\u0131; dolar rallisi \u201cs\u00f6ylentiyi al-haberi sat\u201d ile s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenebilir. \u0130ran\/petrol riski hedge \u015fart. Volatilite i\u00e7in SOFR straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t