\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/CHF yedinci seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde 0,8190 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcvenli liman talebinin, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesiyle azalmas\u0131 bu hareketi destekledi. Ticaret politikas\u0131 da bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131: Trump y\u00f6netimi, \u0130svi\u00e7re d\u00e2hil 60\u2019tan fazla \u00fclkeye \u00e7ift haneli g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri a\u00e7\u0131klarken, daha \u00f6nce belirtilen %12,5\u2019lik tavan i\u00e7inde kald\u0131; \u201chakl\u0131 g\u00f6sterilemeyen\u201d, \u201cmakul olmayan\u201d veya \u201cayr\u0131mc\u0131\u201d uygulamalar\u0131 hedefleyen ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclen bir ba\u015fkanl\u0131k y\u00fcr\u00fctme yetkisi hukuki dayanak olarak g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131nda, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini 2027 boyunca %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; negatif faizler ise ana senaryo de\u011fil, bir ihtiyat plan\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon haziranda %0,5\u2019e geriledi ve %0,8\u2019de zirve yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu seviye, SNB\u2019nin %0\u2013%2 hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kalmaya devam ediyor. ABD dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu; CME FedWatch Tool, temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %38 olarak ima ederken eyl\u00fcle kadar en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %81,4 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Frank, euroya yak\u0131n hareket etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; baz\u0131 modeller korelasyonu %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine koyarken, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte EUR \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 2011\u20132015 aras\u0131nda %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bir de\u011ferlenmeyi tetiklemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, paritenin yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda 0,8190 civar\u0131na toparlanmas\u0131yla USD\/CHF\u2019de artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yar\u0131nki Fed politika karar\u0131yla birlikte, k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, Fed\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Piyasa h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda temmuz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %38 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelecek daha \u015fahin bir hamlenin dolarda sert yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum tetikleyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, g\u00fcvenli liman stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde ay\u0131 put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, frang\u0131n tipik riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f primini t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019ye %12,5\u2019e kadar uygulamaya koydu\u011fu yeni tarifelerin, \u0130svi\u00e7re ihracat ekonomisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 ve para birimini daha da zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131na i\u015flem yapman\u0131n en uygulanabilir strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. SNB\u2019nin haziran enflasyonunun %0,5 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyeye gerilemesiyle desteklenen \u015fekilde politika faizini 2027\u2019ye kadar %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, eyl\u00fcle kadar ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %81,4\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar frang\u0131 t\u00fcrev carry i\u015flemlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir fonlama para birimi olarak kullanarak bu makastan yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar tetikte: G\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi azalan \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, USD\/CHF 0,8190\u2019da 7. g\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fte. Tarifeler bask\u0131, SNB uzun s\u00fcre %0, Fed art\u0131\u015f beklentisi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t