USD\/IDR, Bank Indonesia (BI) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Perry Warjiyo\u2019nun pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc istifa etmesinin ard\u0131ndan Endonezya Rupisi\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa saatlerinde 18.130 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. Bu geli\u015fme Endonezya varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, BI\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik incelemeleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. S&P ise personel de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini, ancak para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki seyrine ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv (Fed) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. CME FedWatch Tool, temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %38 olarak fiyatlarken, ayr\u0131 bir fiyatlama noktas\u0131nda eyl\u00fcle kadar en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %81,4 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkiledi: Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ile \u201ciyi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler\u201d y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve Washington hafta sonu 13 gecelik sald\u0131r\u0131 kampanyas\u0131na ara verdi; b\u00f6ylece \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste sald\u0131r\u0131 ya\u015fanmad\u0131. Ancak Tahran, ABD ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve aktif tek diyalo\u011fun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda Umman ile y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtirken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Paritenin 18.130 seviyesine do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde USD\/IDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bank Indonesia Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Perry Warjiyo\u2019nun ani istifas\u0131 bir liderlik bo\u015flu\u011fu yaratarak Rupiyi yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirdi. Tarihsel olarak, geli\u015fen piyasalarda merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n ani ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikler ve yerel para birimini birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %3 ila %5 zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Dolar senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut piyasa verileri, bu hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %38, eyl\u00fcle kadar art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise y\u00fcksek bir \u015fekilde %81,4 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kimli\u011fini peki\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in \u015fahin bir ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor ve uzun USD t\u00fcrevlerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak d\u00fc\u015fen enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki son diplomatik ilerleme askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara verilmesine yol a\u00e7arak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerinin hafiflemesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu jeopolitik rahatlama s\u00fcrerse, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri yak\u0131n vadede emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerine k\u0131yasla g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 daha da destekleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f geli\u015fen piyasa portf\u00f6yleri i\u00e7in, ani sermaye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek getirili varl\u0131klarda koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, ABD faizleri yabanc\u0131 siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n h\u0131zla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu savunmac\u0131 opsiyon i\u015flemlerinin zamanlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan USD\/IDR\u2019de 18.250 civar\u0131ndaki bir sonraki \u00f6nemli teknik diren\u00e7 seviyesinin izlenmesi kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok istifa Rupiyi vurdu: USD\/IDR 18.130\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken BI ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulan\u0131yor. Fed \u00f6ncesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, opsiyonlarda long USD\/IDR ve petrolde put stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor bug\u00fcn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t