Rupi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak USD\/INR paritesini 95,65\u2019e do\u011fru \u00e7ekti; ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki yumu\u015fama, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f dengeleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. MCX\u2019te 19 A\u011fustos vadeli ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.848 rupiye gerileyerek bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ini ithal etmesi nedeniyle daha ucuz petrol, d\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p para birimini destekliyor. Bununla birlikte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve enerji arz ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n \u201ctam olarak normale d\u00f6nmedi\u011fi\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmeler yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyallerine de kayd\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re faizlerin %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit tutulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %62, buna kar\u015f\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yurti\u00e7inde ise Reuters anketi, Mart 2027\u2019de sona erecek mali y\u0131l i\u00e7in Hindistan GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu tahmin FY2025-26\u2019daki %7,7\u2019den gerilemeye i\u015faret ederken, FY2027-28\u2019de %6,8\u2019e toparlanma bekleniyor. G\u00f6zler ard\u0131ndan gelecek hafta RBI karar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) olan 95,93\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda seyrederken, RSI 50,6 seviyesinde; diren\u00e7 97,10 civar\u0131nda, destek ise 95,00\u2019te bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesinde t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 95,00 destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira rupideki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenme pariteyi 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama olan 95,93\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na itti. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 50,6 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n seyrederken, bu yatayla\u015fma d\u00f6neminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cbear call spread\u201d stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ancak olas\u0131 ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131, 95,93 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f rupiyi rahatlatsa da, kritik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle temkinli duru\u015f korunmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak Hindistan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %85\u2019ini ithal ediyor; bu da rupiyi, Brent\u2019in 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 benzeri enerji \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n rupiyi zay\u0131flatma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n portf\u00f6y sigortas\u0131 olarak tercih edilmesini uygun buluyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131 ve gelecek hafta Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI) toplant\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Mevcut fiyatlama Fed\u2019in faizi %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %62 g\u00f6sterse de, \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz rupi \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir zay\u0131flama yaratabilir. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, uzun straddle gibi oynakl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck stratejilere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bu mali y\u0131lda ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki %7,7\u2019den %6,6\u2019ya yava\u015flamas\u0131, RBI\u2019n\u0131n kur destek kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. \u00d6te yandan, son d\u00f6nemde 650 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezervleri, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir tampon sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 95,00\u201396,50 band\u0131nda i\u015flemlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini; haftal\u0131k opsiyonlarla h\u0131zl\u0131 zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (premium decay) yararlan\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol gev\u015fedi, rupi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek USD\/INR\u2019\u0131 95,65\u2019e itti. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski masada. G\u00f6zler Fed ve RBI\u2019da; 95,00 destek, 97,10 diren\u00e7 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t