Sterlin, Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. GBP\/USD, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bo\u015flu\u011fun (bullish gap) ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilerek Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3290 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde istikrar kazan\u0131rken parite bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Temmuz\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %38 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %81,4 seviyesinde. Sterlin, Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti\u011fi bir seansa ra\u011fmen Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc de 1,3300\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalarak g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler y\u00fczeyde destekleyiciydi: Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar Haziran\u2019da, hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131n %1 artt\u0131. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Temmuz\u2019da alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselirken, \u00f6nc\u00fc aktivite anketleri \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti. Di\u011fer yandan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumas\u0131yla Sterlin %0,13 gerilerken Dolar yatay kald\u0131; GBP\/USD, 1,3363 seviyesini test ettikten sonra 1,3305\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin hafta sonu \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump ise Tahran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 halinde ek ad\u0131mlar at\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n anl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek %38 ile fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir Fed karar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, paritede her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak \u00fczere GBP\/USD straddle stratejisi (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 rejimlerinde s\u00fcrpriz faiz kararlar\u0131, a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan saatler i\u00e7inde 100-150 piplik h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketleri tetikleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini 1,3290 civar\u0131nda d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, Haziran\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %1\u2019lik perakende sat\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ekonomik temelleri olduk\u00e7a sa\u011flam kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, daha uzun vadeli GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 iskontolu fiyattan biriktirmek i\u00e7in iyi bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Benzer tarihsel geri \u00e7ekilmelerde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 t\u00fcketici talebi zamanla \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorlayarak Sterlin\u2019i yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, jeopolitik gerilimler ve ani riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) dalgalar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Portf\u00f6yleri bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,3150 civar\u0131nda olan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ve k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu korunma stratejisi, k\u00fcresel ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 veya Fed\u2019den \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131n gelmesi halinde paritenin Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki diplerine geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi Sterlin alarm veriyor: GBP\/USD 1,3290\u2019a geriledi. Piyasalar Temmuz\u2019da %38 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Straddle ile volatilite, uzun vadeli call biriktirme, 1,3150 put ile korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t