Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek, 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden geri \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.050 dolar\u0131 test etti. Piyasan\u0131n dikkati, seans\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde ba\u015flayacak iki g\u00fcn s\u00fcrecek Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. ABD Dolar\u0131, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131yla \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirveleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu: CME Group FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Temmuz\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %38 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor (bir hafta \u00f6nce %16\u2019yd\u0131) ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %81. Bu beklentiler, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki duraklaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesinden ve enflasyon endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan rahatlaman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti; Asya\u2019da \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerindeki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 da Dolar\u2019\u0131 ayr\u0131ca destekledi.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte XAU\/USD 4.047,22 dolarda bulunurken, 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.070,45 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.213 ile 4.493 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n da alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Momentum zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI (14) 44,99 seviyesinde. 22 Temmuz\u2019da 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131yla bir \u201cBear Cross\u201d (ay\u0131 kesi\u015fimi) teyit edildi. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.070,45 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.212,98 dolar, bunu 4.458,42 dolar ve 4.492,57 dolar izliyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini korurken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na alt\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrin devam\u0131na pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Dolar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirveleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretmesi ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin yeniden %4,35\u2019e do\u011fru t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, getiri sa\u011flamayan k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %1,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, alt\u0131n t\u00fcrev hacimleri genellikle belirgin bi\u00e7imde ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na kayar.<\/p>\n\n
Temmuz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin ge\u00e7en haftaki %16\u2019dan %38\u2019e h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u015fahin kaymalar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, psikolojik 4.000 dolar destek seviyesini hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taktiksel kurgu sunuyor. Yakla\u015fan Fed faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 22 Temmuz\u2019daki \u201cBear Cross\u201d \u2014100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131\u2014 sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc net bi\u00e7imde elinde tuttu\u011funu teyit ediyor. Bu trend, art\u0131k sert bir tavan g\u00f6revi g\u00f6ren 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama olan 4.070 dolar civar\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu yazarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fczeltme y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in uygun f\u0131rsatlar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi emtia taraf\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenli liman primini azaltm\u0131\u015f olsa da, beklenmedik makro veriler yine de sert k\u0131sa kapama (short-covering) rallilerini tetikleyebilir. Portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.213 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri korunmal\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dalgal\u0131 faiz ortam\u0131nda yol alabilmek ad\u0131na, bu ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alt\u0131n i\u015flemlerini USD\u2019de uzun pozisyonlarla dengelemek faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 4.050 test edildi. G\u00f6zler iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. \u015eahin faiz beklentileri dolar ve getirileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken \u201cBear Cross\u201d teyidi 4.000 deste\u011fini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t