\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBOC), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\/CNY merkezi paritesini 6,7928 olarak belirledi; bu seviye Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,7911\u2019in hafif \u00fczerinde. Bankan\u0131n beyan etti\u011fi politika hedefleri; d\u00f6viz kuru istikrar\u0131 d\u00e2hil fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumak, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek ve \u00c7in\u2019in finansal piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7ma ve geli\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik mali reformlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek.<\/p>\n
PBOC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 devlet m\u00fclkiyetindedir ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir kurum olarak de\u011ferlendirilmez. Y\u00f6netim yap\u0131s\u0131, Devlet Konseyi ba\u015fkan\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla atanan \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi komite sekreteri taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenir; Pan Gongsheng h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda hem bu g\u00f6revi hem de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k (governorship) g\u00f6revini y\u00fcr\u00fctmektedir. Operasyonel tarafta PBOC; yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Bor\u00e7 Verme \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131 (MLF) ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) ve Kredi Ana Faizi\u2019ni (Loan Prime Rate – LPR) kullan\u0131r. LPR, krediler, konut kredileri ve tasarruflar\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131nda referans faiz oran\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019de 19 \u00f6zel banka bulunmaktad\u0131r; en b\u00fcy\u00fckleri dijital kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131 WeBank ve MYbank\u2019t\u0131r. \u00d6zel banka modeli, devlet \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki sisteme yurt i\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 yeni giri\u015flere 2014\u2019ten itibaren izin verilmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
PBOC\u2019nin USD\/CNY merkez kurunu 6,7928 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 belirledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, son d\u00f6nemdeki k\u00fcresel piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. 6,7911\u2019den gelen bu marjinal ayarlama, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Yuan\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha zay\u0131f 7,20 seviyelerine k\u0131yasla nispeten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Pekin\u2019in kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan y\u00f6netmeye devam etmesi nedeniyle spot piyasada daha dar i\u015flem bantlar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; Caixin \u0130malat PMI endeksi 51,8 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki faiz getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, Yuan \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere k\u0131yasla azalt\u0131yor. Bu unsurlar\u0131n, yakla\u015fan ticaret \u00f6demelerinin riskten korunmas\u0131 (hedging) i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Yuan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) cazip bir ara\u00e7 h\u00e2line getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. <\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, PBOC\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ima edilen volatilite (implied volatility) odakl\u0131 stratejilere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. USD\/CNY \u00fczerinde demir kondor (iron condor) gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejiler, bu y\u00fcksek derecede kontrol edilen ortamda prim getirisini hedeflemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bununla birlikte, merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131nda ani de\u011fi\u015fimleri yakalamak i\u00e7in yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan g\u00fcnl\u00fck likidite enjeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 izlemek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak PBOC\u2019nin g\u00fcnl\u00fck fixing\u2019i bu kadar dar bir bantta tutmas\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir piyasa hareketi \u00f6ncesinde bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine yol a\u00e7ar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer dar bant d\u00f6nemlerinde, referans Kredi Ana Faizi\u2019nde (LPR) beklenmedik indirimler ani ve sert kur hareketlerini tetiklemi\u015ftir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 politika kaymalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131k vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 koruyucu stoplar (protective stops) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yuan\u2019da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama kritik sinyal: PBOC USD\/CNY fixing\u2019ini 6,7928\u2019e \u00e7ekti. S\u0131k\u0131 kur y\u00f6netimi s\u00fcrerken volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, bant i\u00e7i stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; olas\u0131 LPR s\u00fcrprizlerine kar\u015f\u0131 stop \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t