Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde gerileyerek ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.050 dolar civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ile \u201ciyi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler\u201d y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi beklentileriyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesiyle geldi; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri enflasyon endi\u015felerini ve ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ihtimali azaltt\u0131. Trump ayr\u0131ca, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde ABD\u2019nin askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lara yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini belirtirken, neredeyse iki haftal\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara verilmesini takip eden s\u00fcre\u00e7te, Tahran da kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerdeki ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 durdurdu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika karar\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; yetkililerin, s\u00fcregelen enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Az\u0131nl\u0131k bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 grubu an\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131rken, genel beklenti olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha \u00e7ok Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e \u00f6telenebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. \u00d6te yandan, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de rezervlerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.050 dolar seviyesi \u00e7evresinde konsolide oldu\u011fu bu d\u00f6nemde k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair ihtimal enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak so\u011futsa da, yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 kritik bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dalgal\u0131 bir fiyat seyri beklenmeli; \u00f6zellikle baz\u0131 piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa an\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle.<\/p>\n
Mevcut fiyat s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (OTM) olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel e\u011filimleri, sert rallileri takiben jeopolitik gerilimin duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility) h\u0131zla gerileme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in politika duru\u015funu sindirdi\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde, iron condor gibi n\u00f6tr stratejilerin y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131sal talebin son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekiyor; k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal destek, 3.900 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Daha uzun vadeli konumlanma i\u00e7in, bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck ralliden pay almak amac\u0131yla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131ndan yararlanarak takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spreads) kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda nefes kesen geri \u00e7ekilme: XAU\/USD 4.050$\u2019a sarkt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran yumu\u015famas\u0131 enflasyon korkusunu azalt\u0131rken g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de. K\u0131sa vadede opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/iron condor, uzun vadede 3.900$ al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t