Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinin ge\u00e7 saatlerinde ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, son enflasyon raporuna at\u0131fta bulunarak maliyetlerin h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdi\u011finde fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesi gerekti\u011fini ekledi. Ayr\u0131ca ilk kez, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Trump, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 \u201charika\u201d olarak nitelendirdi ve Warsh\u2019\u0131n bir \u201ckurulu\u201d oldu\u011funu belirterek Warsh\u2019\u0131n do\u011fru olan\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Trump y\u00f6netiminin vergi indirimlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta gelirli haneler i\u00e7in kayda de\u011fer bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ilk a\u00e7\u0131k \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrev portf\u00f6ylerimizi derhal ayarlamam\u0131z gerekiyor. Fed fon vadeli kontratlar\u0131 bu yorumlara \u015fimdiden fiyatlama yap\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fime pozisyon almak i\u00e7in iki y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131n almak son derece etkili bir y\u00f6ntemdir; \u00f6zellikle tarihsel veriler, siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n yeni bir Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131yla ayn\u0131 hizaya gelmesi halinde getirilerin h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131, Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sona erdikten sonra maliyetlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini izlerken y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak. Her iki y\u00f6nde de sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ham petrolde straddle stratejisi kapsam\u0131nda opsiyon kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %20\u2019ye varan h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikledi; bu da enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruman\u0131n kritik oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Hazine Bakan\u0131 Bessent\u2019in orta s\u0131n\u0131fa y\u00f6nelik vergi indirimlerine ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvence veren a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, t\u00fcketim odakl\u0131 hisselere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011flayabilir. Artan hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketici talebine i\u015faret eden son perakende verileriyle de destekleniyor; talep genellikle vergi rahatlatma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesiyle daha da ivmeleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, faiz indirimi beklentileri geni\u015flemeci vergi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte artarken daha zay\u0131f bir ABD Dolar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar kullanarak EUR\/USD veya AUD\/USD paritelerinde uzun (long) pozisyon almak, dolar endeksindeki (greenback) bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden yararlanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Fed\u2019in a\u011fustosta resmi bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesi halinde, ABD Dolar Endeksi \u00f6nceki gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerini and\u0131r\u0131r bi\u00e7imde kritik 100 seviyesine do\u011fru kolayl\u0131kla gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump\u2019tan ilk net faiz indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131: Fed vadeli i\u015flemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc fiyatl\u0131yor, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131klarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131. K\u00f6rfez \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 petrol sert oynak; WTI straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Vergi indirimleri t\u00fcketimi destekler; XLY call ve zay\u0131f dolar i\u00e7in EUR\/AUD long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t