Donald Trump, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na damga vurdu. Piyasalar, sekiz b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoJ) \u00e7evirdi. Yakla\u015fan faiz sinyallerine y\u00f6nelik bu odak, Washington\u2019dan gelen yeni jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler i\u00e7in arka plan olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma konusunda ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi; \u201cbolca zaman\u201d oldu\u011funu eklerken sonucun belirsizli\u011fini korudu\u011funu ifade etti. Axios, Trump\u2019\u0131n diplomasiye alan a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurmaya karar verdi\u011fini; ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde geni\u015fletilmi\u015f asker\u00ee harek\u00e2t se\u00e7ene\u011fini masada tuttu\u011funu bildirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak Trump, Husilerle ilgili sorunlar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde ABD\u2019nin devreye girebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Suudi Arabistan ile g\u00fcndeme gelmedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 diplomasi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla jeopolitik man\u015fetler h\u0131zla y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirirken, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ani hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Asker\u00ee faaliyetlerde olas\u0131 bir duraklama petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine so\u011futabilse de, kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda t\u0131rmanma riski y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aniden bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Brent ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksamalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %10\u2019luk s\u0131\u00e7rama gibi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Halihaz\u0131rda Brent ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve opsiyon z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir miktar gerileyerek primleri nispeten ucuzlatm\u0131\u015f durumda. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, bu ge\u00e7ici sakinli\u011fi daha sonra de\u011fer kazanabilecek \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu hafta Fed, BoE ve BoJ\u2019dan kritik para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 bekleniyor. Fed politika faizini %5\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerde tutarken, BoJ normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini y\u00f6netmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; bu da d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 sert hareketlere a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hangi y\u00f6nde ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de straddle stratejisiyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik verilerin \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyalleri ve k\u00fcresel ticaret riskleri sindirilirken, devlet tahvillerinde oynakl\u0131k da yeniden g\u00fcndemde. Ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki tarih\u00ee zirvelerine yak\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren alt\u0131nla birlikte, alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevleri bizim i\u00e7in temel bir ara\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor. Daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6yleri hem enflasyonist bask\u0131lara hem de ani jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde birikim yap\u0131lmas\u0131na veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesine odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran mesajlar\u0131 jeopolitik risk primini yeniden alevlendirdi: Brent 80 dolarda, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k gerilerken OTM call ile long vol f\u0131rsat\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fed-BoE-BoJ \u00f6ncesi USD\/JPY straddle, alt\u0131nla koruma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t