Singapur Para Otoritesi (MAS), S$NEER politika band\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlenme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitti; bant geni\u015fli\u011fi ve merkez seviyesi ise de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. Otorite, ayarlaman\u0131n nisan ay\u0131ndaki ad\u0131ma k\u0131yasla daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtirken, tahminler S$NEER e\u011fiminin 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ad\u0131m, politika tepkisi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc kalsa da ithal enflasyona ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Singapur\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: GSYH 1\u00c7\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,3, 2\u00c7\u2019de %5,7 artt\u0131. MAS, faaliyetin trendin \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle 2026\u2019da pozitif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesini bekliyor. \u00d6te yandan, yurti\u00e7i enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu; birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yayg\u0131n ikinci tur etkilerine dair kan\u0131tlar\u0131n zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Singapur dolar\u0131, y\u00fcksek ABD tahvil getirilerine ve jeopolitik gerilimlerde olas\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 olmaya devam ederken, son s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u015fahin politika e\u011filimini koruyor.<\/p>\n
MAS\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Singapur Dolar\u0131\u2019nda (SGD) g\u00fc\u00e7lenme beklentisiyle t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. MAS\u2019in S$NEER e\u011fimini tahmini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi, yerel para birimini destekleyecek \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar kullanarak USD\/SGD paritesinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in cazip bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
SGD\u2019ye ili\u015fkin pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, Singapur ekonomisindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performansla destekleniyor: 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH %6,3, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde %5,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130n\u015faat ve finansal hizmetlerde tabana yay\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ekonominin daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu arada, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5 civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanmas\u0131, piyasay\u0131 bozabilecek agresif yurti\u00e7i faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 riskini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli stratejilerde, paritede beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimden yararlanmak i\u00e7in USD\/SGD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal yap\u0131lar\u0131 kullanabilir; sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek \u00fczere kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/SGD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131labilir. Bu kurgu, orta vadede kurun 1,31 seviyesine do\u011fru gerileyece\u011fi beklentimizle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,15 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve zaman zaman ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi nedeniyle d\u0131\u015f riskler \u00f6nemini koruyor. Bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, k\u00fcresel getirilerde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli SGD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla portf\u00f6ylerin hedge edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu hedge\u2019lerin aktif tutulmas\u0131, USD\/SGD\u2019deki daha geni\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskle faydalanmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" MAS\u2019tan s\u00fcrpriz ikinci s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma: S$NEER e\u011fimi 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, SGD destek buluyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrerken USD\/SGD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon, put ve risk reversal stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t