Goldman Sachs, \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Londra tezg\u00e2h\u00fcst\u00fc (OTC) piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden 48 tondan fazla alt\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBOC), rezervlerde yaln\u0131zca 10 tonluk art\u0131\u015f bildirdi. Bu da May\u0131s ay\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n resm\u00ee rakam\u0131n 4,8 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re merkez bankas\u0131 2026\u2019da toplam 40 ton ekledi; bunun 15 tonu Haziran ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve bu, iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. \u00d6te yandan Goldman\u2019\u0131n \u201cnowcast\u201d g\u00f6stergesi, May\u0131s\u2019a kadar \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalamada ayl\u0131k 67 tona i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
2,0 katl\u0131k \u00e7arpanla Goldman, \u00c7in\u2019in 2026 birikimini 80 tona daha yak\u0131n hesapl\u0131yor; May\u0131s oran\u0131 uygulan\u0131rsa bu tahmin 192 tona y\u00fckseliyor. 2024 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan ayr\u0131 bir analiz ise gizli al\u0131mlar\u0131 570 ton, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bildirilen art\u0131\u015f\u0131 41 ton olarak hesaplad\u0131 ve parasal alt\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n 5.000 tonun \u00fczerinde olabilece\u011fini, bunun da kamuya a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakam\u0131n iki kat\u0131ndan fazla oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2015 ortas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan tarihsel a\u00e7\u0131klamada 604 tonluk s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f; rezervler 1.054 tondan 1.658 tona y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131ca Devlet D\u00f6viz \u0130daresi (SAFE) \u00fczerinden bilan\u00e7oda g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen birka\u00e7 bin ton alt\u0131n tutuldu\u011funa dair iddialar da bulunuyor. Goldman\u2019\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, 2026 sonu i\u00e7in ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.900 dolar tahminini de i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir alt\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisiyle uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 biriktirerek agresif bi\u00e7imde pozisyon almalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck finansal kurumlar alt\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k 2026 sonuna kadar ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.900 dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 k\u00fcresel talebin ger\u00e7ek \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu iddial\u0131 hedef, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmelerinin kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler i\u00e7in son derece cazip giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 sundu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etti\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ve a\u00e7\u0131klanmayan merkez bankas\u0131 birikimiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Resm\u00ee raporlar \u00c7in\u2019in 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda rezervlerine yaln\u0131zca 40 ton alt\u0131n ekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, gizli tezg\u00e2h\u00fcst\u00fc al\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ek rakam\u0131n 192 tona daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (WGC) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015farak agresif \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme kapsam\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.030 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izledi\u011fi yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem verileriyle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu gizli talebi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda vadesi dolan bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131; b\u00f6ylece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi yakalarken prim erimesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u015eahin Fed s\u00f6yleminin tetikledi\u011fi her k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, call\u2019lar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle almak i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. Asya kaynakl\u0131 bu gizli al\u0131mlar k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 bir fiyat taban\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Perde arkas\u0131nda dev alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 m\u0131? Goldman, \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s\u2019ta OTC\u2019den 48+ ton toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, PBOC\u2019nin 10 ton a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Gizli birikim 2026\u2019da 192 tona \u00e7\u0131kabilir; hedef 4.900 dolar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t