ABD dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ge\u00e7ici bir duraklaman\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc genel olarak yatay seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00f6nce geriledi, ard\u0131ndan yeniden ba\u015fa ba\u015f seviyelere yak\u0131n d\u00f6nd\u00fc; Federal Rezerv\u2019in iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 101,40\u2019a do\u011fru hafif\u00e7e geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Piyasalar Fed\u2019in %3,50\u2013%3,75 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak petrol\u00fcn sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerini desteklemesiyle olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimali de izlenmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Maj\u00f6rlerde EUR\/USD, Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH verileri ile Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc temmuz enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde 1,1370 civar\u0131nda seyretti. GBP\/USD, Bank of England (BoE) \u00f6ncesinde 1,3300\u2019a do\u011fru gerilerken, BoE\u2019nin faizleri sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 163,70\u2019e gev\u015fedi; \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n kalmaya devam ederken, BoJ\u2019un da politikay\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131 ancak ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma se\u00e7ene\u011fini masada b\u0131rakmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. AUD\/USD, RBA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Michele Bullock\u2019un konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve Avustralya enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde 0,6990\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. WTI %7\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 82,30 dolara inerken, alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 art\u0131\u015fla 4.081 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc ajandada ADP\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 16,5 bin, may\u0131s Konut Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin -%0,1 sonras\u0131 %0,2 artmas\u0131 beklentisi, ayr\u0131ca temmuz T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni ve Bundesbank ayl\u0131k raporu yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, WTI opsiyonlar\u0131nda 82,30 dolara kadar gelen son %7\u2019lik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bir konsolidasyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak ham petrolde bir g\u00fcnde %5\u2019i a\u015fan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri, jeopolitik risk primlerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla bant i\u00e7inde seyreden bir d\u00f6nem izler. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00e7eyrek baz\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek seviyelere yak\u0131n bulunan y\u00fckselmi\u015f ima edilen volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli iron condor ya da credit spread stratejileri \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki ge\u00e7ici duraklamaya ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.081 dolara do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131, yap\u0131sal talebin son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 son iki y\u0131lda rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131 ve k\u0131ymetli metalin y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fine destek veriyor. Tahvil getirilerinin yumu\u015famay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, 4.150 dolar seviyesini hedefleyerek uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 ya da bull call spread stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda, BoJ\u2019un yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/JPY\u2019nin 163,70 civar\u0131nda put opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yen, \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde, \u015fahin politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerini izleyen haftada tarihsel olarak ortalama %1,5 de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi. Olas\u0131 ani bir m\u00fcdahale veya \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put al\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa GSYH verileri ve BoE\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de de temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro ve Sterlin i\u00e7in ima edilen volatilite bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 y\u00fckseldi; bu art\u0131\u015f, kritik veri\/karar ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 sert hareketlerden faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yan straddle veya strangle stratejileri burada y\u00fcksek potansiyel sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik solukla dolar yatay: DXY 101,40\u2019a yak\u0131n, Fed\/BoE\/BoJ \u00f6ncesi g\u00f6zler sabit faizde. WTI %7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, alt\u0131n 4.081$. Opsiyonda iron condor, alt\u0131na bull call, USD\/JPY put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t