Latin Amerika FX ve faizleri, enerji ve yumu\u015fak emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131nda iyile\u015fen d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri ile birlikte, kurlara veya vadeye (duration) yans\u0131yabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc reel faiz \u00e7\u0131palar\u0131 sayesinde destek buluyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk a\u015famas\u0131nda 2\u00c7\u2019de enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na sa\u011flanan deste\u011fin yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklenirken, baz\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetler daha fazla mali alan yaratma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla vadeyi tercih edebilir. Ancak carry cazibesi, y\u00fckselen ABD tahvili getirileri ve FED politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; bu durum hedge oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n
GO\u00dc i\u00e7inde politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. BanRep\u2019in faizi 50bp art\u0131rarak %12,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 bekleniyor; reel faizler %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken aktivite g\u00f6stergeleri de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor: perakende sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ift haneli b\u00fcy\u00fcyor ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni haziranda toparland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ge\u00e7en hafta di\u011fer baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde politika s\u00fcrprizleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve G\u00fcney Afrika Merkez Bankas\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskine ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131rmak yerine faizi sabit tuttu.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel enerji ve tar\u0131msal emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin, b\u00f6lgede ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkeleri desteklemesiyle Latin Amerika varl\u0131klar\u0131nda yeniden f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00fclkelerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc reel faizler yerel para birimlerine \u00e7\u0131pa olmaya devam ederken tahvil getirilerini de destekliyor. Bununla birlikte, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,2 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin sermayeyi yeniden defansif g\u00fcvenli limanlara \u00e7ekme riski nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
FED\u2019in daha az \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir politika duru\u015fu benimsemesi ve net ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeden (forward guidance) uzakla\u015fma ihtimali, carry trade momentumunu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu belirsizli\u011fi y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131nda yap\u0131sal olarak y\u00fcksek hedge oranlar\u0131n\u0131 korumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Sabit getirili enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n, hedge edilmemi\u015f kur riskine k\u0131yasla \u015fu an \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri profili sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kolombiya Merkez Bankas\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde \u015fahin tarafta \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; kal\u0131c\u0131 talep bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla faizde 50 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %12,50 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisi var. Kolombiya\u2019da reel faizler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, Endonezya ve G\u00fcney Afrika gibi di\u011fer baz\u0131 GO\u00dc\u2019ler enflasyon risklerine ra\u011fmen son d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verdi. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, Kolombiya \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda \u00e7ift haneli b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi, t\u00fcketici dinamikleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimlerine se\u00e7ici bi\u00e7imde odaklanmay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Enerji ve tar\u0131msal emtia r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 Latin Amerika FX\/faizlerini destekliyor: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc reel faiz \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 var. Ancak y\u00fckselen ABD getirileri ve FED belirsizli\u011fi carry\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; y\u00fcksek hedge \u015fart. Kolombiya \u015fahin ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t