Ham petrol\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k rallisi, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesinden \u00f6nce %50 ve %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmeleri, Haziran zirveleri ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli bir hat \u00fczerinde olu\u015fan diren\u00e7 k\u00fcmesiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasa 92,50 dolardan a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, 92,81 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerisini reddetmesine, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 12\u2019nci gece \u00fcst \u00fcste kayda ge\u00e7mesine, Brent\u2019in May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131 planlar\u0131n\u0131n dillendirilmesine ra\u011fmen yeniden 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pentagon bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131; hafta sonunda \u0130ran \u201cuyulmas\u0131 halinde\u201d duraklama teklif edince sald\u0131r\u0131lar durdu. Umman teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 ve \u0130ran y\u00f6netimindeki gemi ge\u00e7i\u015flerinde daha az sevkiyat k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u015fekillenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Brent\u2019te kay\u0131p daha da belirgindi.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n ise petrol\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne, dolar ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesine ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\u2019den %80\u2019in \u00fczerine h\u0131zla kaymas\u0131na ra\u011fmen %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. 8 Temmuz ile k\u0131yaslama \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131yd\u0131: O g\u00fcn ham petrol %6,79 y\u00fckselirken alt\u0131n %2,18 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak bu kez petrol\u00fcn neredeyse ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte ters y\u00f6ndeki hareketi, alt\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki \u00fcretti. Hisse vadelilerinin tepkisi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu: Dow vadelileri yakla\u015f\u0131k 550 puan y\u00fckselirken, S&P 500 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 art\u0131da ve Nasdaq daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. Sevkiyat riski taraf\u0131nda, 24 Temmuz\u2019da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en tanker say\u0131s\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce 50 iken bu kez 1\u2019e indi; yerel haberlerde ise Husilerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6rt geminin geri \u00e7evrildi\u011fi ve rafineri yang\u0131nlar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eu anda g\u00fcnl\u00fck man\u015fetlere tepki vermek yerine fiyat grafiklerini izlememiz gerekiyor. Son d\u00f6nem piyasa ge\u00e7mi\u015fi, teknik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ek haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmeden g\u00fcnler \u00f6nce bir rallinin sonuna i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin ham petrol, sa\u011flam Fibonacci diren\u00e7lerine tekrar tekrar temas edip, ani diplomatik duraklamalar a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan hemen \u00f6nce geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Mevcut tabloda Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI), uzun s\u00fcren rallilerin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %7\u2019lik gecelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere benzer bi\u00e7imde sert oynakl\u0131k sergiliyor. G\u00fcncel enerji verileri k\u00fcresel petrol talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyon varile so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da s\u00f6z konusu teknik diren\u00e7 tavanlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ani petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015finden gitmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekir; zira gecelik jeopolitik risklerin hafiflemesiyle bu hareketler h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelere son derece a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n asimetrik davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na da yak\u0131ndan bakmak gerekiyor; bu, daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendindeki piyasalar\u0131n klasik bir imzas\u0131d\u0131r. Petrol \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcp enflasyon beklentileri geriledi\u011finde\u2014normalde k\u0131ymetli metalleri destekleyen ko\u015fullar\u2014alt\u0131n yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fcretebildi. Bu zay\u0131f tepki, k\u0131ymetli metaller piyasas\u0131nda sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bi\u00e7imde kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck toparlanmalar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri yerine ge\u00e7ici \u201cnefes\u201d rallileri olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yumu\u015fak enflasyon verilerinde bile yeni dipler g\u00f6rmeye yatk\u0131n olmas\u0131, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun \u015fu anda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor. Net bir teknik taban olu\u015fana kadar bu sekt\u00f6rde uzun pozisyondan ka\u00e7\u0131narak riski y\u00f6netmeye odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Buna ek olarak, ABD Dolar Endeksi haftal\u0131k bayrak formasyonunun \u00fczerine kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131ktan sonra ge\u00e7ici bir duraklama sinyali veriyor. Tarihsel olarak dolar, ay d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcne yak\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli seyrini tersine \u00e7evirme e\u011filimini istatistiksel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde sergiler. Bu da A\u011fustos\u2019a ge\u00e7i\u015fte birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilecek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimize; metallere ve madencilere hedeflenen tepki b\u00f6lgelerine do\u011fru \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir \u201cpencere\u201d a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131, bu kur ve emtia d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinde ana tetikleyici i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Piyasa faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve gelecekteki indirimlere ili\u015fkin kullanaca\u011f\u0131 dil bir sonraki ana trendi belirleyecek. Pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2r tutmal\u0131y\u0131z; zira olas\u0131 bir \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz, dolar rallisini an\u0131nda yeniden ba\u015flatabilir ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde 3 haftal\u0131k ralli Fibonacci\/zirve direncinde duvara \u00e7arpt\u0131; ate\u015fkes ve sevkiyat \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle WTI %7 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Alt\u0131n zay\u0131f tepki verdi, risk Fed ve dolarda; vadeli endeksler s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t