Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda hafta sonu ya\u015fanan gerilimi azaltma hamlesiyle 52.600\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseldikten sonra, \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yar\u0131 iletken sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n endeksi yeniden 52.000 seviyesine \u00e7ekmesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 250 puan art\u0131da 52.200 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol yeniden fiyatland\u0131; Brent ge\u00e7en hafta 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 90 dolar civar\u0131na inerken, WTI 84 dolar seviyesine geriledi. Ham petroldeki harekete ra\u011fmen deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme devam etti; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve Bab\u2019\u00fcl Mendep\u2019ten ge\u00e7i\u015fler yava\u015flarken, Husiler Suudi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 iddialar\u0131nda bulundu. Hisseler daha sonra, \u00c7inli tak\u0131m tezg\u00e2h\u0131 \u00fcreticilerinin derin ultraviyole (DUV) litografi makinelerini seri \u00fcretime ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerden y\u00f6n buldu; bu geli\u015fme \u00f6nde gelen Bat\u0131l\u0131 bir tedarik\u00e7ide %7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kayba ve daha geni\u015f \u00e7ip grubunda yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131. AMD %7, Teradyne %5,9 ve Micron %4 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Makro veriler ve faizler \u201cbar\u0131\u015f primi\u201dni neredeyse hi\u00e7 yans\u0131tmad\u0131. Haziran dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri, \u00f6nceki %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan beklenti %1,6 iken %0,3 artt\u0131; ula\u015ft\u0131rma hari\u00e7 %0,6 y\u00fckselirken, savunma d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye mallar\u0131 (u\u00e7ak hari\u00e7) %0,9 artt\u0131. Vadeli piyasalar \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini h\u00e2l\u00e2 %35,8 olarak fiyatlarken, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az bir art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %80,3; 28 Ekim\u2019e kadar %85,9 ve 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar %91,0 seviyesinde, ayr\u0131ca o tarihe kadar iki art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %57,0 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in faizi %3,75\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131 konsens\u00fcs\u00fc (18:00 GMT), \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 gelmesi beklentisi, GSYH\u2019nin %2,1, i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 187 binden 204 bine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve ECI %0,8, Chicago PMI 56 ve Michigan beklentilerinin (1 y\u0131l) %4,2 ve (5 y\u0131l) %3,3 gibi di\u011fer veriler bulunuyor. Teknik seviyeler olarak 52.600 ard\u0131ndan 52.800 diren\u00e7leri ve 53.300 civar\u0131nda rekor seviye; destek olarak 52.000, 51.800 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 51.500 civar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Stochastic RSI 18 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara, son jeopolitik \u201cmola\u201dy\u0131 son derece temkinli de\u011ferlendirmelerini ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f primi yerine volatiliteye pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent petrol %7 d\u00fc\u015ferek yeniden 90 dolar seviyesine inse de, k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri Bab\u2019\u00fcl Mendep gibi kritik bo\u011fazlardan ge\u00e7i\u015flerin tarihsel ortalamalara k\u0131yasla %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bozulmu\u015f durumda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu y\u0131lki \u00f6nceki ate\u015fkeslerin haftalar i\u00e7inde bozuldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarla korunma (hedge) yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Endeks opsiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Dow Jones ile S&P 500 gibi piyasa de\u011feri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeksler aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dow\u2019un yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne maruziyeti s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan\u2014\u00c7in\u2019in yerli litografi ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndaki at\u0131l\u0131m haberleriyle sars\u0131lan sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn aksine\u2014uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in daha g\u00fcvenli bir ara\u00e7 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fc, Dow \u00fczerinde call spread alarak ve teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde put opsiyonlar\u0131yla devam eden tedarik zinciri \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki makroekonomik veriler ve \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda yo\u011fun piyasa hareketine de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00c7ar\u015famba i\u00e7in %35,8\u2019lik faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle, sabit getirili t\u00fcrevler \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Beklenen ima edilen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in, Apple ve Microsoft gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji devlerinin bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde straddle veya strangle i\u015flemlerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, Dow 52.000 kritik destek seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi (bullish bias) olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Endeks 52.600 tavan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapabilirse, 52.800 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru momentumun s\u00fcrmesine oynanabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiyat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 51.800\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na sarkarsa\u2014bu, sava\u015f priminin piyasalara geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edece\u011finden\u2014h\u0131zla y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirip koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131r olunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada \u201cbar\u0131\u015f primi\u201d k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc: Dow 52.200\u2019e tutunurken \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7ip sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131 yapt\u0131. Brent %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 90 dolara indi; bo\u011faz ge\u00e7i\u015fleri riskli. Fed-veri g\u00fcndemi volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t