ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na odaklanan dikkat, iki taraf\u0131n da sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara vermesiyle birlikte Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131na kayd\u0131. ABD\u2019nin BM B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n diplomasiyi \u00f6nceledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik misillemeyi durdurdu; Trump ayr\u0131ca ABD m\u00fchimmat\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckendi\u011fine dair haberleri de reddetti. CBS News\u2019e g\u00f6re Tahran, Umman\u2019la H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u201cdeniz trafi\u011fine ili\u015fkin mekanizmalar\u201d konusunda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Washington\u2019la bir m\u00fczakere i\u00e7inde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Piyasalar, haziran T\u00dcFE verilerinin enflasyonda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc FOMC\u2019nin faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na %64 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor; ancak petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7en hafta 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p Pazartesi 82 dolara gerilemesi, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin 65.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak 64.648 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 65.067 dolar seviyesi alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019lar s\u0131ras\u0131yla 67.759 ve 73.465 dolarda bulunuyor. RSI orta \u00e7izginin hemen \u00fczerinde seyrederken MACD zay\u0131flad\u0131; destek seviyeleri 63.171 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 61.034 ve 57.835 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi ise 67.360\u201370.302 ve 73.244 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na uzan\u0131rken, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 73.465 dolar da bu b\u00f6lgede yer al\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n 4.074 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 4.000\u20134.100 dolar band\u0131nda yatay kald\u0131; 50, 200 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019lar 4.217, 4.298 ve 4.352 dolarda. Yukar\u0131da 4.282 ve 4.432 dolar civar\u0131 izlenirken, 4.000 dolar\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin artabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tansiyonun azalmas\u0131 ve oda\u011f\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv faiz karar\u0131na kaymas\u0131yla, bu hafta sert piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem taraf\u0131na \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki askeri eylemlere verilen aran\u0131n petrol\u00fc 82 dolara \u00e7ekmesine ra\u011fmen, altta yatan enflasyon tehdidi ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira Brent\/WTI\u2019da ge\u00e7en haftaki 90 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru ani bir toparlanma, faiz beklentilerini h\u0131zla bozabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fu anda Fed\u2019in faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131na %64 olas\u0131l\u0131k verirken, s\u00fcrpriz bir ad\u0131ma ili\u015fkin %36\u2019l\u0131k kayda de\u011fer bir ihtimal bulunuyor. Tarihsel veriler, Fed politikas\u0131 belirsizli\u011finin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) karar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerin \u00e7evresinde genellikle %15 ila %20 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda, karar sonras\u0131 sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kripto taraf\u0131nda, Bitcoin\u2019in 64.648 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve kritik 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131 olan 65.067 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 63.171 dolardaki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin korunamamas\u0131, 61.034 dolar b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak ad\u0131na, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n da benzer bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc sergiliyor: 4.074 dolarda ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan 4.217 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kritik 4.000 dolar deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, yak\u0131nlarda hareketli ortalama deste\u011fi olmamas\u0131 agresif k\u0131sa sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 te\u015fvik edebilir. Alt\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayan momentumu e\u015fli\u011finde, yukar\u0131daki diren\u00e7 seviyelerini hedeflemek i\u00e7in bear call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat Fed\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc: ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi petrol\u00fc 82 dolara \u00e7ekti, fakat faiz riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bitcoin 65 bin alt\u0131 zay\u0131f; alt\u0131n 4.000 deste\u011finde. T\u00fcrevde straddle\/hedge \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t