USD\/CHF, Bloomberg\u2019in bir haberinde \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini 2027 sonuna kadar s\u0131f\u0131rda tutabilece\u011finin belirtilmesinin ard\u0131ndan Haziran 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re SNB daha sonra yorum yapmay\u0131 reddetti. Parite, \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen SNB\u2019nin %0\u2013%2 fiyat istikrar\u0131 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131yla, \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 seans\u0131 da art\u0131da ge\u00e7irerek 0,8187 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 beklentileri ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasalar Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak fiyatlamalar anl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %33 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %81 seviyesinde. ABD Dolar Endeksi, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 101,12 ile g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dipten toparlanarak 101,47 civar\u0131na geldi; daha \u00f6nce sald\u0131r\u0131larda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir duraklamaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olu\u015fan bask\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla yeniden temkinli bir havaya b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya uzun vadeli (long) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 kullanarak pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur \u015fu anda 0,8187 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc alt\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisinin ard\u0131ndan Haziran 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini 2027\u2019nin sonlar\u0131na kadar %0\u2019da tutabilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylentilerle birlikte, bu paritede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yol net bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u015flemin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in referans faizini h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda tutmas\u0131yla, geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re eyl\u00fclde bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali \u015fimdiden %81; bu \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da %33 seviyesinde. Olas\u0131 volatiliteyi yakalamak ve \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprizden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hem dolar hem de \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 geleneksel g\u00fcvenli limanlar olsa da, s\u00fcregelen ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca SNB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7mi\u015fi iyi biliniyor; banka daha \u00f6nce a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeyi engellemek i\u00e7in milyarlarca frank harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fan bu \u00f6rt\u00fck \u201ctavan\u201d, USD\/CHF\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,47\u2019ye toparlanmas\u0131yla birlikte, dolar\u0131n USD\/CHF\u2019yi 0,8300 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek yap\u0131sal deste\u011fe sahip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 ani diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, 0,8100 destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na koruyucu zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri koymas\u0131 gerekiyor. Call spread stratejileri de giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz mi geliyor? Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re SNB faizi 2027 sonuna dek %0\u2019da tutabilir; USD\/CHF 0,8187 ile zirveye yak\u0131n. Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, faiz fark\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131 pariteyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t