WTI, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fleterek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82,60 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fc %7,4 ekside ge\u00e7irdi. Fiyatlar, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu boyunca askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara vermesinin ard\u0131ndan geriledi; bu durum, iki haftal\u0131k do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri art\u0131r\u0131rken jeopolitik risk primini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Washington\u2019\u0131n, \u00f6nleyici f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler ve geriye kalan y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli hedef say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerek\u00e7eleriyle kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 durdurdu\u011funa dair haberleri fiyatlad\u0131; her iki taraftan yetkililer de yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece itidal i\u00e7in alan bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131ndaki riskler tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in temkinli hava s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u0130ran destekli Husiler, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz boyunca Suudi Arabistan petrol tesislerine sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlediklerini iddia etti. OCBC, ham petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7en hafta haziran kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi etmesinin ard\u0131ndan gev\u015fedi\u011fini ve son hareketin, fiyatlar\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6sterece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel senaryolar\u0131yla uyumlu oldu\u011funu belirtirken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda seyr\u00fcsefer serbestisine ili\u015fkin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmemi\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131klar ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na dair belirsizliklere dikkat \u00e7ekti. ING ise iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck aradan \u00f6nce 13 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lara i\u015faret ederek Brent\u2019in bir a\u015famada %7\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fini; bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemi ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ise anlaml\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, WTI ham petrol\u00fcndeki son %7,4\u2019l\u00fck sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ima edilen volatilitedeki ani gerilemeden faydalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI 82,60 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken Brent\u2019in 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, anl\u0131k jeopolitik prim h\u0131zla buharla\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130lk piyasa pani\u011fi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a prim erimesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc arz temelleriyle de destekleniyor: Son EIA verileri, ABD ham petrol \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,2 milyon varilin \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 arzda bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,2 milyon varillik g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc kesintileri kademeli olarak sonland\u0131rma plan\u0131yla birle\u015fmesi, uzun vadeli sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, ani ve k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri (bear call spreads) ile \u201csatman\u0131n\u201d uygulanabilir bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte kuyruk riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli; zira H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, d\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir bo\u011faz niteli\u011finde. Olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya sevkiyat kesintisi, petrol\u00fc h\u0131zla 90\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011finden, mutlak k\u0131sa pozisyonlar son derece risklidir. Bu olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in uzun put takvim spread\u2019leri (long put calendar spreads) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir hedge olarak vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 call opsiyonu sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n g\u00fcvenli seyr\u00fcsefere ili\u015fkin somut i\u015faretler bekledi\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f ancak tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir bantta konsolide olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda tarihsel olarak %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayabilen petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki ima edilen volatilitenin, tarihsel ortalamas\u0131 olan %25-30 band\u0131na do\u011fru yeniden yak\u0131nsama (mean reversion) e\u011filiminde olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Demir kondor (iron condors) ile yatay bant stratejisi kurmak, riski net \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken zaman de\u011fer erimesinden gelir elde etmeyi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, prim buharla\u015ft\u0131: WTI 82,60 dolarda, %7,4 kay\u0131p. Volatilite gerilerken OTM opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/ay\u0131 call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski i\u00e7in hedge \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t