BNP Paribas, \u0130ngiltere b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2025\u2019teki %1,3\u2019ten 2026\u2019da %1\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 1\u00c7\u2019teki \u00e7\/\u00e7 %+0,4\u2019l\u00fck geni\u015flemenin ard\u0131ndan geliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli ivme zay\u0131flad\u0131: \u00fcretim Nisan\u2019da a\/ay %-0,1 geriledi ve May\u0131s\u2019ta a\/ay %+0,1 artt\u0131; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama \u00e7eyreklik h\u0131z\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %+0,1 d\u00fczeyinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Banka, daha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 yeniden artan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor; enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda bu y\u0131l %3,2\u2019ye ve 2027\u2019de %3,1\u2019e \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; her iki tahmin de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) hedefinin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n\n
Bu arka planda, beklenti daha \u00f6nceki politika gev\u015femesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnden uzakla\u015f\u0131p 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda BoE\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. BNP Paribas, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirilerinin 2026 boyunca y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de %4,30\u2019a gev\u015feyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; hareketi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck net arz, siyasi risk primlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve piyasalar\u0131n olas\u0131 BoE indirimlerini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Sterlinin 2027\u2019ye kadar dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor; GBP\/USD\u2019nin 2026 4\u00c7\u2019te 1,32\u2019ye gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken USD\/JPY i\u00e7in tahmin 165.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
\u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2025\u2019teki %1,3\u2019ten bu y\u0131l yaln\u0131zca %1\u2019e gerilemesini bekliyoruz. May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,1\u2019lik yatay b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eden son ayl\u0131k veriler, ekonomik momentumun h\u0131zla s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu yava\u015flayan ortama zay\u0131flayan \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in \u0130ngiltere hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak konumlanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirdi; bunun, \u0130ngiltere t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu bu y\u0131l %3,2\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon nedeniyle art\u0131k \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli sterlin faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak zorunda kalmas\u0131yla, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirilerinin 2026 boyunca y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, getiriler 2027\u2019de %4,30\u2019a do\u011fru gev\u015femeye ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce bu y\u00fcksek getiri ortam\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu %3 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda uzun vadeli getiriler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131r; bu da \u00f6deyen (payer) swaplar\u0131 cazip bir se\u00e7enek haline getirir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda Sterlin\u2019in ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar 1,32 seviyesine gerilemesini hedefliyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, jeopolitik kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar\u0131n geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcyle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya spot piyasada k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7may\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: BNP Paribas, \u0130ngiltere b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da %1\u2019e yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla enflasyonun %3 \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. BoE\u2019ye 2026 2Y\u2019de 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131; giltler y\u00fcksek, sterlin zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t