Piyasalar, petrol\u00fcn varilinin 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesinin enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC karar\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Fed\u2019in faizi be\u015finci toplant\u0131da da %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Haziran ABD enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5\u2019e gerilese de %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; \u015fahin bir mesaj, ABD tahvil getirileri ile dolar\u0131 (USD) destekleyerek alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rma e\u011filiminde olur. Alt\u0131n 4.100 seviyesine do\u011fru toparland\u0131 ancak momentum zay\u0131f ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in daha sert bir duru\u015fu 4.000 seviyesini yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirebilirken, daha yumu\u015fak bir ton 4.200\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da BoJ\u2019un, Haziran\u2019daki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kan faiz sonras\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc oranlar\u0131 %1,00\u2019de tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; tart\u0131\u015fma, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ya da Ekim\u2019de gelip gelmeyece\u011fi \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. USD\/JPY ge\u00e7en hafta 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan 163,97\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi; y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi 164,50\u2019yi g\u00fcndemde tutuyor ancak politikada s\u00fcrpriz veya m\u00fcdahale riski pariteyi 162,00\u2019ye do\u011fru \u00e7ekebilir. BoE\u2019nin de faizi be\u015finci kez %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; Haziran \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu %2,6 seviyesinde ve 7-2 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3300\u2019den toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n seyri y\u00f6nlendirmeye ve niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.100 diren\u00e7 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00f6netmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerini h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; zira petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 %10\u2019luk bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, genellikle tek bir \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7inde man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,2 puan ekler. Fed, artan enerji bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, 4.000 destek seviyesini hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli alt\u0131n put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY paritesinde, piyasan\u0131n 163,97 seviyesindeki son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek hassasiyetinden yararlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ivmesi siyasi b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, Tokyo\u2019nun ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki tek tarafl\u0131 piyasa m\u00fcdahaleleri tarihsel olarak yen \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda %2-%3\u2019l\u00fck sert ve ani sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikledi. Paritenin 164,50\u2019ye do\u011fru s\u00fcren temel y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in 162,00 d\u00fczeltme b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda al\u0131\u015f-limit emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, GBP\/USD\u2019de t\u00fcrev stratejilerin \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha savunmac\u0131 veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015flara yaslanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde %2,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu ilerlemeden memnun oldu\u011funa dair herhangi bir i\u015faret sterlinde sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. 1,3300 destek taban\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla paritede k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol 100 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde, Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba mesaj\u0131 kritik: \u015eahin ton dolar ve tahvili g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip alt\u0131n\u0131 4.000\u2019e itebilir; g\u00fcvercinlik 4.200\u2019\u00fc a\u00e7ar. BoJ\/BoE s\u00fcrprizi JPY ve GBP\u2019yi oynat\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t