EUR\/USD\u2019nin haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek 1,1373 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu haftaki \u00f6nemli makroekonomik g\u00fcndem \u00f6ncesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite \u015fu anda 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) olabilir. Tarihsel olarak Euro bu t\u00fcr \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k kritik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklenmedik politika de\u011fi\u015fimleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri tetikler.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 101,46 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n bu \u00c7ar\u015famba s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %33, Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in ise %79 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla destekleniyor. Enflasyon riskleri h\u00e2len g\u00fcndemdeyken, Fed\u2019den gelebilecek agresif s\u00f6ylemi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Dolar\u2019da y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalmas\u0131 durumunda endeks, tarihsel i\u015flem ortalamas\u0131 olan 103,50 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturmaya devam ederken, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) petrol\u00fc 83,20 dolar civar\u0131nda oynak kal\u0131yor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sermayeyi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 riske atmadan ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak \u00fczere WTI ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda bull call spread stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin ani arz tehditlerinin, bir gecede kolayl\u0131kla %10 ila %15\u2019lik bir risk primi yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Atlantik\u2019in \u00f6te taraf\u0131nda, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bir sonraki kararlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r olacak. Temmuz \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, ECB \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir ve bu da EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1450 band\u0131na do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Enflasyon verisinin hangi y\u00f6nde gelece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Euro\u2019da \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc strangle stratejilerinin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1373\u2019te fren yapt\u0131: Volatilite kap\u0131da. \u015eahin Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli put, DXY i\u00e7in call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle WTI\u2019da bull call spread. Euro\u2019da strangle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t