Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, Bat\u0131 Avrupa faizlerini yukar\u0131 itti; \u00e7ekirdek ve yar\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek piyasalarda 2 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler son d\u00f6rt haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 baz puan y\u00fckseldi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) eyl\u00fclde ikinci bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, \u015fubata kadar politika faizinin %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ilave bir ad\u0131m\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki teknik k\u0131r\u0131lma geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasa tahvilleri i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f b\u0131raksa da bu beklenti fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eubatta %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015f, politikay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puanla k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerinin daha netle\u015fmesi ko\u015fuluna ba\u011fl\u0131; bu y\u00f6nde bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmadan, son y\u00fckseli\u015f 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirileri halihaz\u0131rda %2,83\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda ve tahvil ile swap gibi faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde son s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (pause) ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyonlanma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Analiz, kur cephesini de d\u0131\u015f konjonkt\u00fcre ba\u011fl\u0131yor; ABD\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n uzamamas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesi halinde EUR\/USD\u2019nin daha cazip \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bize g\u00f6re temmuzdaki k\u00fcresel sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7t\u0131 ve trend tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faydalanabilece\u011fi \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat do\u011furdu. Bat\u0131 Avrupa genelinde 2 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri son d\u00f6rt haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 baz puan s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, a\u011fustosa girerken y\u00fcksek miktardaki k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 sert bir \u201cshort-covering\u201d s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Para piyasalar\u0131 agresif faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini beklemenin zorlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund getirisi yak\u0131n zamanda %2,55\u2019i test ederken, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Schatz getirisi %2,85\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu seviye kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi aniden h\u0131zlanmad\u0131k\u00e7a, bu k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 getiri seviyelerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n getiri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayacak \u015fekilde EUR faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz almak (receive fixed) veya Bund vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak suretiyle pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kurgu, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in temkinli kalmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n zirvelerinden geri gelmesi halinde EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan makro veriler so\u011fumadan \u00f6nce a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f bu getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde tavsiye ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel veriler, Avrupa\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme deste\u011fi olmadan h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, genellikle haftalar i\u00e7inde ortalamaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. 2024 ortas\u0131nda T\u00dcFE verileri istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda getirilerin 40 baz puan geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi benzer bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 reaksiyon g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eimdi benzer bir d\u00fczeltmeye pozisyon almak, taktik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u201d alarm\u0131: Bat\u0131 Avrupa getirileri 4 haftada 30 bp s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. ECB %2,75 patikas\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor; short-covering riskiyle ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Receive swap\/call Bund. EUR\/USD destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t