DBS Group Research ekonomistleri, yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek elektronik \u00fcr\u00fcnler, g\u00f6\u00e7, tarifeler ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 man\u015fet yak\u0131t enflasyonundaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da zorluklar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefi do\u011frultusunda, Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019ten bu yana \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3+ seviyelerinde seyretmesinin, k\u0131sa vadeli politika duru\u015funun h\u00e2len tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, s\u00fcreci karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131ran bir unsur oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ektiler.<\/p>\n
Makro arka plan\u0131 \u201ckarma\u201d olarak nitelendiren ekonomistler, Fed Fon faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verilmesi tezinin zay\u0131flayan talep g\u00f6stergeleriyle desteklendi\u011fini ifade etti. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n reel olarak s\u0131f\u0131r civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n, solmaya ba\u015flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla birlikte, g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ayr\u0131ca, vadeye g\u00f6re daha \u00e7ok k\u0131sa tarafa y\u0131\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek kamu bor\u00e7lanma ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n da FOMC\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131yla uyumlu bir ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6r oldu\u011funa de\u011finildi.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos 2026\u2019ya girerken son derece karma\u015f\u0131k bir makroekonomik zemine bak\u0131yoruz; Federal Reserve, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ile so\u011fuyan talep aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019ten bu yana %3 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde inatla kal\u0131rken, gerileyen perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve zay\u0131f \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 daha fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcman olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n agresif politika hamlelerine bahis oynamaktansa, uzayan bir merkez bankas\u0131 \u201chareketsizlik\u201d d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, 2026 ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,2 seviyesinde y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; bunun da kal\u0131c\u0131 hizmet maliyetleri ve tedarik zinciri bask\u0131lar\u0131ndan beslendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6te yandan perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ayl\u0131k bazda sadece %0,1\u2019e kadar yava\u015flad\u0131; bu da y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin t\u00fcketici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc nihayet a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Bizce zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun bu bile\u015fimi Fed\u2019i \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d pozisyonuna kilitleyecek ve bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131na neden olacak.<\/p>\n
Beklenen bu aradan faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131; \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131rken ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklememelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. SOFR opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli butterfly spread al\u0131mlar\u0131, faizlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 durumunda istikrarl\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Ayr\u0131ca Hazine\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ihrac\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve bu \u00e7eyrekte rekor hacimlere ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Federal bor\u00e7 arz\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle uzun vadeli getirilerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, Hazine opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fmesi (steepener) stratejileri i\u00e7in de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ederken, enerji ve faiz opsiyon piyasalar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite h\u00e2len fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Brent petrol\u00fc ve Hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde straddle\u2019lar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla volatilitede uzun pozisyon almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani piyasa \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de %3+ \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon Fed\u2019i rahat b\u0131rakm\u0131yor; \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131t enflasyonunu art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n talep zay\u0131f: reel \u00fccret durgun, sat\u0131\u015flar s\u00f6n\u00fck. Piyasa \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d, SOFR\/steepener ve volatilite stratejileri fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t