Piyasalar, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda bildirilen aray\u0131 \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; odak, ham petrol arz riskleri ile Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 k\u0131\u015f\u0131n enerji stresiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakabilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc rafineri k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. ABD\u2019de elektrik sistemi; rekor talep, yaz d\u00f6neminde zirve yapan yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131, artan veri merkezi y\u00fck\u00fc ve gazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fcretime s\u00fcren ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle zorlan\u0131yor olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Makro g\u00fcndem, Atlanta Fed GDPNow\u2019un daha \u00f6nce %4+ seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde an\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra 17 Temmuz\u2019da %1,7\u2019ye gerilemesiyle birlikte 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fcyor; bilan\u00e7o sezonunda ise S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te biri rapor a\u00e7\u0131klarken Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta ve Qualcomm \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; buna ek olarak teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yo\u011fun tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015fe dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 takvimi yo\u011fun: Fed, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) tamam\u0131n\u0131n faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tarafa meyilli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve CME FedWatch\u2019un ima etti\u011fi faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %33,7 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor (Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %37,4; bir hafta \u00f6nce %16,0). Metin, uzun vadeli politika riskini niceliksel gev\u015femenin geri sar\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011flayarak, bunun Fed bilan\u00e7osuna 6,7 trilyon dolar ekledi\u011fini veya GSYH\u2019nin neredeyse %21\u2019ine denk geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Siyaset ve yumu\u015fak g\u00fc\u00e7 ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik \u201columluluk\u201d oran\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019a koyan uluslararas\u0131 anketlere, Trump i\u00e7in Pew \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcnde %23 \u201columlu\u201d okumas\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor; yurti\u00e7inde Trump\u2019a %33 destek verildi\u011fi, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zelinde ise \u00e7ekirdek MAGA taban\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %18 seviyesinde oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes ip \u00fczerinde y\u00fcr\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde risk priminin h\u0131zla erimesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ya da ani arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Brent petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle stratejilerini kullanmas\u0131 gerekir. Ger\u00e7ek d\u00fcnyadaki elektrik \u015febekesi bask\u0131s\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda belirgin; veri merkezlerinin elektrik t\u00fcketiminin 2030\u2019a kadar ABD toplam talebinin %8\u2019ine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da yak\u0131t arz\u0131nda herhangi bir aksaman\u0131n \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, resmi bir diplomatik anla\u015fman\u0131n Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n keskin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu potansiyel de\u011fi\u015fimi yakalamak i\u00e7in Euro ve Sterlin gibi G7 para birimlerinde dolara kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik risk primleri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesiyle ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) h\u0131zla %2 ila %3 gerileyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Fed, BoE ve BoJ\u2019un bu hafta toplanmas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde acil ayarlama ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011fuyor. CME FedWatch\u2019ta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisinin %16\u2019dan %33\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin bir pas\u201d senaryosunu ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrerken, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015funa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in SOFR vadeli i\u015flemler opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7te biri, Microsoft ve Apple gibi teknoloji devleri dahil olmak \u00fczere, bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klarken; sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn tahvil piyasas\u0131nda yo\u011fun bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 onu getirilerdeki hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor. Buna paralel olarak, Bo\u011faz kaynakl\u0131 riskler azal\u0131rken yabanc\u0131 sermayenin yeniden k\u0131taya d\u00f6nmeye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla Avrupa hisseleri giderek daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Avrupa \u015firket gelirlerinin yerel ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde \u00e7e\u015fitlenmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu de\u011ferleme fark\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemlerine k\u0131yasla Euro Stoxx 50 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonu tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in ileride bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesine gitmesinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli kurumsal riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeli. Fed bilan\u00e7osu h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek seviyelerde ve ABD GSYH\u2019sinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor; agresif bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme hamlesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminden kritik likiditeyi \u00e7ekebilir. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olas\u0131 likidite \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgesel bankac\u0131l\u0131k endekslerinde uzun vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d: petrol arz\u0131, Avrupa rafineri k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve ABD \u015febeke bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. GDPNow %1,7\u2019ye indi; bilan\u00e7o sezonu, tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 ve Fed-BoE-BoJ kararlar\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t