GBP\/JPY, Sterlin\u2019in son y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. \u00c7apraz kur 217,84 civar\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,23 ekside i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Sterlin ayr\u0131ca, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle gerileyen \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili getirilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lara verilen ge\u00e7ici ara, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131rken BoE\u2019nin agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini de zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
BoE\u2019nin politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Son enerji \u015fokunun \u015fu ana kadar Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yans\u0131mas\u0131 ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da 15 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan %2,6\u2019ya gerilemesi bu beklentiyi destekliyor. Ancak Washington\u2013Tahran aras\u0131nda somut m\u00fczakereler olmadan petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksamas\u0131 durumunda enflasyona y\u00f6nelik riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar 38 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatl\u0131yor. Savunma, sosyal bak\u0131m ve konuta y\u00f6nelik daha y\u00fcksek harcama planlar\u0131 nedeniyle maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleri de Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, \u00e7aprazdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131f Yen ile s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %1\u2019de tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Temmuz 2026\u2019n\u0131n son haftas\u0131na girerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na kritik merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde GBP\/JPY paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Sterlin\u2019in 217,84 civar\u0131na gerilemesiyle piyasa, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklentilerini yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak GBP\/JPY, maj\u00f6r pariteler aras\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek ortalama ger\u00e7ek aral\u0131klardan (ATR) birini sergiliyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejilerini sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
BoE\u2019nin, Haziran enflasyonunun %2,6\u2019ya gerilemesi sonras\u0131 faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklenmesi nedeniyle GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n 2026 sonuna kadar ilave 38 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif ve g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc uzun bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d mesaj\u0131 vermesi halinde, Sterlin\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Para politikas\u0131na ek olarak, Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n savunma ve konut i\u00e7in yeni \u00f6nerdi\u011fi harcama planlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan mali belirsizli\u011fi de hesaba katmak gerekiyor. Bu \u00f6neriler sosyal kalk\u0131nmay\u0131 hedeflese de, artan kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yak\u0131n vadeli risk halihaz\u0131rda \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu mali bask\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Sterlin g\u00fcc\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) i\u00e7in ikinci bir temel gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, BoJ\u2019un bu Cuma politika faizini %1,0\u2019de tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da Yen\u2019i yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131f tutabilir. Japonya enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, k\u00fcresel yak\u0131t arz\u0131nda ani bir aksamada Yen h\u0131zla zay\u0131flar. Bu nedenle, Yen\u2019in aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi durumunda riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak \u00fczere GBP\/JPY\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli al\u0131m call spread stratejilerini, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine verilen aran\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerji opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevkiyat h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi bi\u00e7imde aksarken, Brent tipi ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 durumunda y\u00fcksek getirili bir korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu emtia call\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 almak, k\u00fcresel enflasyonu yeniden alevlendirebilecek ani bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoE faizi \u00f6ncesi GBP\/JPY 217,84\u2019e geriledi: Sterlin zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc enflasyon korkusunu azaltt\u0131. Piyasa 38 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatl\u0131yor; opsiyonda straddle, put ve call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t