ABD hisseleri Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar k\u0131sa vadeli konsolidasyonu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. S&P 500, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc %1,2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %0,05 y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapan\u0131rken; Alphabet ve Tesla bilan\u00e7olar\u0131, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilimlerin sindirildi\u011fi ortamda i\u015flemler dalgal\u0131 seyretti. Odak \u015fimdi yo\u011fun bilan\u00e7o takvimine kay\u0131yor: Microsoft ve Meta Platforms\u2019un \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Apple ve Amazon\u2019un ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Vadeli fiyatlama, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir gerilimin azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerindeki iyile\u015fmenin deste\u011fiyle a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta %0,9\u2019luk y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Pozisyonlanma g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanan AAII Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %29,6\u2019s\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f (bullish), %42,3\u2019\u00fc ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. T\u00fcrev piyasalarda S&P 500 vadeli kontrat\u0131 7.500 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00f6nceki seanstaki sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 7.540-7.560 band\u0131nda diren\u00e7 ve 7.480-7.500 band\u0131nda destek yer al\u0131yor. Haftan\u0131n di\u011fer g\u00fcndem ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC politika karar\u0131, yakla\u015fan ekonomik veriler ve teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlemelere ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen tart\u0131\u015fma bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n 7.500 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na sert dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Microsoft, Meta, Apple ve Amazon gibi a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131n bu hafta bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacak olmas\u0131, opsiyon ima edilen volatilitesini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Anl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015fluklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hisse portf\u00f6ylerini korumak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli koruyucu put\u2019lar\u0131n veya covered call stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m tarihsel verilerle de uyumlu; zira a\u011fustos ay\u0131 geleneksel olarak y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f aylar\u0131ndan biri olup, son birka\u00e7 on y\u0131lda S&P 500 i\u00e7in ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %-0,8 getiriyle negatif bir performansa i\u015faret eder. Ayr\u0131ca AAII Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Anketi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc hissiyat\u0131n %42,3\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da perakende yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda belirgin bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine i\u015faret ediyor. Sermayeyi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 riske maruz b\u0131rakmadan bu olas\u0131 mevsimsel geri \u00e7ekilmeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bear put spread i\u015flemlerinin etkili bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC faiz karar\u0131, muhtemelen volatilite k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in nihai kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6recek. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) bu yaz konsolidasyonu boyunca g\u00f6rece bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, opsiyon primleri al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan h\u00e2l\u00e2 makul seviyelerde. Fed duyurusunun ard\u0131ndan her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir harekete oynayabilmek i\u00e7in S&P 500 endeksi \u00fczerinde long straddle stratejisinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Volatilite K\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m Sistemimiz \u015fu anda k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha defansif bir duru\u015fa yak\u0131n\u0131z. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu dalgal\u0131 konsolidasyon ortam\u0131nda ilerleyebilmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimine odaklanmas\u0131 ve pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131 gerekir. Calendar spread kullan\u0131m\u0131, daha net bir y\u00f6nsel trend olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken theta erimesinden (time decay) faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD hisseleri konsolidasyonda; S&P 500 7.500 \u00e7evresinde dalgal\u0131. Alphabet\/Tesla sindirildi, g\u00f6zler dev bilan\u00e7olarda. AAII bearish %42,3. FOMC \u00f6ncesi volatilite artabilir: korunma put, spread\/straddle \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t