Alt\u0131n, Avrupa seans\u0131nda 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; hafta sonu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015flu\u011fun (gap) ard\u0131ndan ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.020 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki diplerden gelen tepki sonras\u0131nda yatay bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki gerilimin duraklamas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, Petrol ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 dolar geriledi ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6neldi. Bununla birlikte, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed politika karar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in metaldeki y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri ve Dallas Fed \u0130malat Endeksi sanayi ivmesine ili\u015fkin ek ayr\u0131nt\u0131 sunacak.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlamas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %33 olarak ima ediyor; bu da baz senaryonun faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu, ancak yine de Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n verece\u011fi mesajlar\u0131n tonuna dikkat kesilindi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. XAU\/USD en son 4.101 dolarda seyrederken, fiyat hareketi Haziran sonundan bu yana al\u00e7alan \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonu i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; RSI 50 civar\u0131nda, MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 4.160 dolar ve 4.200 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunurken, bu seviyelerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 4.380 dolara do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Destek ise 3.940\u20133.960 dolar band\u0131nda ve 3.885 dolar civar\u0131nda izleniyor; \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen hedef 3.700 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu hafta artmas\u0131 muhtemel oynakl\u0131\u011fa, straddle gibi piyasa-n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejileriyle haz\u0131rlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.100 dolar \u00e7evresinde konsolide olurken, her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Tarihsel olarak, \u00f6nemli Fed politika de\u011fi\u015fimleri, karar sonras\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda ortalama %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik grafiklerde net bir al\u00e7alan \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma (downside protection) ile hedge edilmesini veya put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini tercih ediyoruz. Fiyat\u0131n 3.940\u20133.960 dolar kilit destek aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 3.700 dolar hedefine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 tek bir \u00e7eyrekte yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi tarihsel d\u00f6ng\u00fclerle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Fed\u2019in piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha g\u00fcvercin bir tona ge\u00e7mesi halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 da temkinli kalmak gerekir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisi direnci olan 4.160 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde stop al\u0131\u015f emirleri ya da uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak olas\u0131 ani y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yakalamay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. 4.200 dolar \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve hedefimizi 4.380 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru kayd\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son 10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve jeopolitik tansiyondaki gev\u015feme, enflasyon endi\u015felerini ge\u00e7ici olarak so\u011futarak g\u00fcvenli liman talebini k\u0131sa vadede azaltt\u0131. Ancak vadeli piyasalar bu \u00c7ar\u015famba s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %33 olarak fiyatlarken, \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Fed, faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin net y\u00f6nlendirme sa\u011flayana kadar kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed haftas\u0131 \u00f6ncesi alt\u0131n 4.100 dolarda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: jeopolitik tansiyon ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebi zay\u0131f. Odak Fed karar\u0131; %33 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Teknikte al\u00e7alan \u00fc\u00e7gen; 4.160-4.200 diren\u00e7, 3.940-3.960 destek. Opsiyonda straddle\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t