Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ancak ABD\u2013\u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ge\u00e7ici ara verilece\u011fine dair iyimserli\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn g\u00fcn i\u00e7i diplerinden toparlanmas\u0131yla kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletemedi. XAU\/USD, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 4.083 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ve g\u00fcnde %0,77 art\u0131dayd\u0131. Washington ve Tahran\u2019dan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ise, di\u011fer taraf da geri durdu\u011fu s\u00fcrece itidal g\u00f6sterilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Petrol, arz riskinin azalaca\u011f\u0131 umuduyla ilk etapta geriledi; ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ko\u015fullar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini ve su yolunun kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesiyle ton tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
WTI, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 81,28 dolara kadar geriledikten sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; buna kar\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde h\u00e2l\u00e2 %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde eksideydi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131na ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE enflasyon verisine \u00e7evrildi: faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor, ancak fiyatlamalar h\u00e2l\u00e2 %33\u2019l\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %79\u2019a yak\u0131n g\u00f6steriyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi, 101,12\u2019lik dip seviyenin ard\u0131ndan 101,40 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; faiz beklentilerinin 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar k\u00fcm\u00fclatif yakla\u015f\u0131k 55 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ile uyumlu oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 4.000\u20134.200 dolar band\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 4.070 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA etraf\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken 4.221 ve 4.469 dolardaki 50 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 47 seviyesindeydi ve MACD pozitif kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 4.200 ve 4.221 dolarda; destek 4.069 ve 4.000 dolar civar\u0131nda. 4.222 dolar ise yak\u0131n vadeli kontrol\u00fcn y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in gereken bir sonraki seviye olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin yak\u0131n vadede alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) i\u00e7in bant stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira metal 4.000\u20134.200 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 47 ile n\u00f6tr seyrederken k\u0131sa iron condor veya kredi spread stratejileri olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. Bununla birlikte, ani k\u0131r\u0131lma risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 savunmac\u0131 kalmal\u0131 ve 4.070 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcregelen kapan\u0131\u015f ortam\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolara toparlanmas\u0131yla enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde dalgalanman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu stratejik su yolundaki b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik aksakl\u0131klar CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (OVX) 40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak do\u011frudan opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a pahal\u0131 h\u00e2le getirmi\u015ftir. Bu ortamda i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalarken \u00f6denen primi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmak amac\u0131yla ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde bor\u00e7lu (debit) bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Fed faiz karar\u0131 ile PCE enflasyon verisi, ABD Dolar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n i\u00e7in en kritik volatilite kataliz\u00f6rlerini olu\u015fturuyor. Mevcut durumda CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %79 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonun s\u00fcrece\u011fini bekledi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Fed\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin bir y\u00f6nlendirme faizleri yukar\u0131 iterken getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131ndan, Greenback \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) alarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) senaryosuna pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer Fed beklenmedik bir g\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz yapar ya da net y\u00f6nlendirme olmaks\u0131z\u0131n faizleri sabit b\u0131rak\u0131rsa, sert bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu senaryoda, 4.221 dolardaki ana direncin \u00fczerinde keskin bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da 4.000 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzun straddle stratejisi \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik ve makroekonomik r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar hangi y\u00f6nden eserse essin, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasa tepkilerine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.100\u2019\u00fc test edip 4.083\u2019e \u00e7ekildi; \u0130ran-ABD gerilimi ve petrol\u00fcn 83 dolara toparlanmas\u0131 temkinli havay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. G\u00f6zler Fed ve PCE\u2019de; bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t